That man again!!
AOPA is seriously getting serious!!
The latest from Ben Morgan, true statistics not CAsA's doctored version.
Seriously blows holes in AVM Skidmarks contention that all is well in GA.
Personally I think he is an arrant liar and should resign.
From Ben Morgan:
If you track general aviation pilot numbers from 2000 to 2015 you get a very clear picture of what is happening - a staggering 34% decline in general aviation pilots. The decline in real numbers means that some 8,000+ pilots have exited our industry!
Between 2000 and 2010 we lost approx 3,000 pilots over the ten (10) year period. Then between 2010 and 2014 we lost a further 3,000 pilots - in just four years. Then between 2014 and 2015 a further 1,000 pilots - in just one (1) year.
Lets take a look at AVGAS consumption for the same period. Between 2000 and 2015 we have experienced a 35% decline in AVGAS!
Lets take a look at another chart... Since 2007 the number of aircraft being added to the Australian general aviation industry fleet has declined by 53%! Yes, you can attribute this to a range of factors. That said, you cant hide away from the fact that reducing pilot numbers means reducing aviation activity!
This is seriously bad news for our aircraft sales industry and the businesses which perform engineering and support. Fewer jobs and of course contributing to industry contraction.
With the above in mind, lets take a look at the other side of the aircraft registration equation - The Number of Aircraft Removed from the Register!
Comparing the same period of 2007 to 2015, the number of aircraft cancelled from the Australian general aviation register has increased by 51%.
To be clear, as of 2015 - Approx 350 aircraft were added, with 340 removed! Should the numbers continue on trend, in 15/16 more aircraft will be leaving the register than what is being replenished! Given that full impact of Cessna SID's is now being felt, AOPA believe that the Australian general aviation fleet will now be in established decline!
LETS RE-CAP WHAT THE CHARTS ARE TELLING US....
1. Pilot numbers are in serious decline
2. AVGAS sales are in serious decline
3. Number of new aircraft being added to industry is in serious decline
4. Number of aircraft registration cancellations is seriously increasing
PROGNOSIS: The industry is in established decline - PERIOD.
With regard to CASA calling on AOPA to prove that the industry is in decline....
All of the data for the above charts have been sourced from CASA and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. There is also data from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. All of the information is publicly available and downloadable from their various websites.
Before we jump into reviewing casual factors, lets just compare apples to apples.
The chart you see below, is for US General Aviation Pilot Numbers. This means General Aviation Students, Private and Commercial Pilots - Identical data sets that we have used for the Australian analysis.
In 2006 the FAA recorded 400,283 general aviation pilots and in 2015 the number of pilots had increased to 422,887 - a four (4) percent increase in pilots!
Between 2006 and 2010 the US recorded year on year growth in pilot numbers - In contrast Australia's general aviation pilot numbers were collapsing, experiencing year on year decline.
Interestingly, the US experienced wholesale growth in general aviation instructor numbers! In 2006 there were 91,343 certified instructors and by 2016 there were 102,628 having grown by 11% - An increase of 11,285 actual instructors!
Australia's general aviation pilot community declined 34% by 8,000+ pilots, whilst the US pilot community grew by 4% increasing pilot numbers by 22,600+!
With regard to CASA calling on AOPA to prove that the industry is in decline....
All of the data for the above charts have been sourced from CASA and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. There is also data from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. All of the information is publicly available and downloadable from their various websites.
Before we jump into reviewing casual factors, lets just compare apples to apples.
The chart you see below, is for US General Aviation Pilot Numbers. This means General Aviation Students, Private and Commercial Pilots - Identical data sets that we have used for the Australian analysis.
In 2006 the FAA recorded 400,283 general aviation pilots and in 2015 the number of pilots had increased to 422,887 - a four (4) percent increase in pilots!
Between 2006 and 2010 the US recorded year on year growth in pilot numbers - In contrast Australia's general aviation pilot numbers were collapsing, experiencing year on year decline.
Interestingly, the US experienced wholesale growth in general aviation instructor numbers! In 2006 there were 91,343 certified instructors and by 2016 there were 102,628 having grown by 11% - An increase of 11,285 actual instructors!
Australia's general aviation pilot community declined 34% by 8,000+ pilots, whilst the US pilot community grew by 4% increasing pilot numbers by 22,600+!
TB - I did the best I could with the scrambled data. Readers may follow your post with reference to the charts below - sorry mate; Ben should have posted them earlier.
AOPA is seriously getting serious!!
The latest from Ben Morgan, true statistics not CAsA's doctored version.
Seriously blows holes in AVM Skidmarks contention that all is well in GA.
Personally I think he is an arrant liar and should resign.
From Ben Morgan:
If you track general aviation pilot numbers from 2000 to 2015 you get a very clear picture of what is happening - a staggering 34% decline in general aviation pilots. The decline in real numbers means that some 8,000+ pilots have exited our industry!
Between 2000 and 2010 we lost approx 3,000 pilots over the ten (10) year period. Then between 2010 and 2014 we lost a further 3,000 pilots - in just four years. Then between 2014 and 2015 a further 1,000 pilots - in just one (1) year.
Lets take a look at AVGAS consumption for the same period. Between 2000 and 2015 we have experienced a 35% decline in AVGAS!
Lets take a look at another chart... Since 2007 the number of aircraft being added to the Australian general aviation industry fleet has declined by 53%! Yes, you can attribute this to a range of factors. That said, you cant hide away from the fact that reducing pilot numbers means reducing aviation activity!
This is seriously bad news for our aircraft sales industry and the businesses which perform engineering and support. Fewer jobs and of course contributing to industry contraction.
With the above in mind, lets take a look at the other side of the aircraft registration equation - The Number of Aircraft Removed from the Register!
Comparing the same period of 2007 to 2015, the number of aircraft cancelled from the Australian general aviation register has increased by 51%.
To be clear, as of 2015 - Approx 350 aircraft were added, with 340 removed! Should the numbers continue on trend, in 15/16 more aircraft will be leaving the register than what is being replenished! Given that full impact of Cessna SID's is now being felt, AOPA believe that the Australian general aviation fleet will now be in established decline!
LETS RE-CAP WHAT THE CHARTS ARE TELLING US....
1. Pilot numbers are in serious decline
2. AVGAS sales are in serious decline
3. Number of new aircraft being added to industry is in serious decline
4. Number of aircraft registration cancellations is seriously increasing
PROGNOSIS: The industry is in established decline - PERIOD.
With regard to CASA calling on AOPA to prove that the industry is in decline....
All of the data for the above charts have been sourced from CASA and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. There is also data from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. All of the information is publicly available and downloadable from their various websites.
Before we jump into reviewing casual factors, lets just compare apples to apples.
The chart you see below, is for US General Aviation Pilot Numbers. This means General Aviation Students, Private and Commercial Pilots - Identical data sets that we have used for the Australian analysis.
In 2006 the FAA recorded 400,283 general aviation pilots and in 2015 the number of pilots had increased to 422,887 - a four (4) percent increase in pilots!
Between 2006 and 2010 the US recorded year on year growth in pilot numbers - In contrast Australia's general aviation pilot numbers were collapsing, experiencing year on year decline.
Interestingly, the US experienced wholesale growth in general aviation instructor numbers! In 2006 there were 91,343 certified instructors and by 2016 there were 102,628 having grown by 11% - An increase of 11,285 actual instructors!
Australia's general aviation pilot community declined 34% by 8,000+ pilots, whilst the US pilot community grew by 4% increasing pilot numbers by 22,600+!
With regard to CASA calling on AOPA to prove that the industry is in decline....
All of the data for the above charts have been sourced from CASA and the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. There is also data from the Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. All of the information is publicly available and downloadable from their various websites.
Before we jump into reviewing casual factors, lets just compare apples to apples.
The chart you see below, is for US General Aviation Pilot Numbers. This means General Aviation Students, Private and Commercial Pilots - Identical data sets that we have used for the Australian analysis.
In 2006 the FAA recorded 400,283 general aviation pilots and in 2015 the number of pilots had increased to 422,887 - a four (4) percent increase in pilots!
Between 2006 and 2010 the US recorded year on year growth in pilot numbers - In contrast Australia's general aviation pilot numbers were collapsing, experiencing year on year decline.
Interestingly, the US experienced wholesale growth in general aviation instructor numbers! In 2006 there were 91,343 certified instructors and by 2016 there were 102,628 having grown by 11% - An increase of 11,285 actual instructors!
Australia's general aviation pilot community declined 34% by 8,000+ pilots, whilst the US pilot community grew by 4% increasing pilot numbers by 22,600+!
TB - I did the best I could with the scrambled data. Readers may follow your post with reference to the charts below - sorry mate; Ben should have posted them earlier.