Of Soothsayers and the readers of tea leafs.
"Not from the stars do I my judgement pluck;
And yet methinks I have astronomy,
But not to tell of good or evil luck,
Of plagues, of dearths, or season's quality:
Nor can I fortune to brief minutes tell,
Pointing to each his thunder, rain, and wind;
Or say with princes if it shall go well,
By oft predict that I in heaven find."
Aye, and they are all 'at it'. My tote board odds are constantly shifting and shuffling; and, as the Sonnet remarks - Not from the stars do I my judgement pluck - Amen to that. To keep a shirt on my back I must set the odds against all information, seasoned judgement, logical reasoning, past experience and fight against my own 'instincts; 'tis not an easy task. I could make my life easier by simply 'working' the book - shorten the odds against the favourite, stretch 'em a little to lure the unwary; or, keep it 'flat' and iron out the peaks and troughs. This would be fine were I making a living from it; but as a Choc Frog banker, we only play for 'pride' and love of the game.
“The Master said, “If your conduct is determined solely by considerations of profit you will arouse great resentment.”
For example - the Spence resignation question. I can, with surety, refine the discourse down to three racing possibilities. That she must 'resign' is a forgone conclusion; that was made clear at the last McDolittle indaba. Her total lack of 'control' of the front row, that she could be so easily ambushed combined with the panicked, stilted reading of a risible prepared statement pretty much bowled her out in the first innings, for a Duck. Many of the fellahin openly state a lack of faith in her ability to control, let alone lead the CASA pack out of the deeply entrenched system which provides unlimited power, without any form of challenge from the minister, Senator or independent inquiry. With impunity and legal elegance all inquiry is told to 'go boil your bottom'. Spence has now had a half year to ring in the changes - what have we got? Puff and Obfuscation in Spades, that's what. Resignation (pushed or shoved) is at odds on - 3/1 (on). (Risk three to win one). 'She-has-to-go' short odds favourite.
"If Gladstone fell into the Thames, that would be a misfortune; and if anybody pulled him out, that, I suppose, would be a calamity
The 'Grim Reaper' is at shortening odds; many prepared to support the fanciful notion that the first class lifeboat (with the gold trimmed toilet seats) is slowly, but surely sinking. The whisper of 'heavy duty' Mandarins at work persists - DPM Joyce only needed to ask the right folk, back the honourable Biskin to the hilt, make his directive clear and sit back and watch the experts do their job. I'm not certain - still good odds as an each way 'dabble' - 6/1 as I look at 'the book'.
“But the days passed, and expectations gave way to resignation—the hopeless resignation of the old, sometimes miscalled apathy.”
One of the riskier items to set is the latest submission from CASA to the 20/20 McDolittle Inquiry. A cool 269 pages of 'justification' and highly suspect 'data' defining the CASA position on Community Service Flight (CSF) operations. It is a long, tedious narrative; with (IMO) more holes in the 'operational' cheese than can be counted. Even though the judgement was in the CASA favour - legally; it falls far short of defining exactly how the basic operational problems can be resolved. Two fatal accidents; both instances of pilots persisting into meteorological conditions neither they or the aircraft was capable of dealing with. CASA may have won the argument but fail, dismally, to address, let alone rectify the radical cause. In short; gods alone what the fiscal cost has been to win that - but how have they improved 'safety'? I'll post 100/1 odds against CASA providing any sort of 'safety' improvement to operational matters; increased engine and maintenance cost do not a safety resolution make - its Bollocks. There has been repetitive instances of these accidents for a long while now; what have CASA done to prevent a re-occurrence; - SDA is the correct answer, not even a roadshow - (censored).
“If someone is able to show me that what I think or do is not right, I will happily change, for I seek the truth, by which no one was ever truly harmed. It is the person who continues in his self-deception and ignorance who is harmed.”
There is one 'small' item which I believe is worthy of some mention. The ATSB published a short report - HERE - which almost beggars belief. It begs but one simple question; where was the 'watchdog' - for a decade? I do not want me or mine flying in the same skies as the aircraft or pilot mentioned. Aircraft need maintenance of the regular variety to keep 'em airworthy. For a dedicated, black letter 'compliance' - big dollar outfit like CASA you could be forgiven for wondering what, in the seventh Hell they do to keep passengers and other aircraft safe. CASA have a massive budget, surely they could get out of the plush offices once in a while and actually check the maintenance status of actual aircraft, in real hangers on the few airfields we have left. Commercial GA understands the simplicity of 'serviceable' aircraft; but how many cockroaches are scampering about in the back of the hanger???
“Hector...boast while you may. The victory is yours, a gift from Zeus the Son of Cronos and Apollo. They conquered me...Listen to this and ponder it well. You too, I swear it, have not long to live. Already sovran Destiny and Death are very close to you, death at the hands of Achilles, the peerless son of Peleus”
Aye well; so much for the Bookies wee problems; it would be much simpler if we just adopted a rational. ICAO compliant rule set. The devil is in the details and it was a daemon wrote them into the Holy writ which our political, bipartinsane overlords are quite happy to support. To their collective everlasting shame.
“I don't believe anything's really inevitable until it happens. We just call it inevitable to make ourselves feel better about it, to excuse ourselves for not having done anything.
I have found the ultimate deterrent to 'excessive' walks in the bloody rain; the dogs have decided that DT's hairdryer is a 'thing' to be avoided whenever practicable. They decided it was better to be bored at home when its raining pick handles than be brought in and 'done' with the dread machine. Remarkable really; but not tonight. Duty to Aunt Pru done; no rain and a breeze to boot. Enough of the fools ramblings - Away dogs! Happily, I amble along behind looking forward to an illicit cigar and a few quite Ales, and a no bloody hairdryer evening.
Selah.-.
"Not from the stars do I my judgement pluck;
And yet methinks I have astronomy,
But not to tell of good or evil luck,
Of plagues, of dearths, or season's quality:
Nor can I fortune to brief minutes tell,
Pointing to each his thunder, rain, and wind;
Or say with princes if it shall go well,
By oft predict that I in heaven find."
Aye, and they are all 'at it'. My tote board odds are constantly shifting and shuffling; and, as the Sonnet remarks - Not from the stars do I my judgement pluck - Amen to that. To keep a shirt on my back I must set the odds against all information, seasoned judgement, logical reasoning, past experience and fight against my own 'instincts; 'tis not an easy task. I could make my life easier by simply 'working' the book - shorten the odds against the favourite, stretch 'em a little to lure the unwary; or, keep it 'flat' and iron out the peaks and troughs. This would be fine were I making a living from it; but as a Choc Frog banker, we only play for 'pride' and love of the game.
“The Master said, “If your conduct is determined solely by considerations of profit you will arouse great resentment.”
For example - the Spence resignation question. I can, with surety, refine the discourse down to three racing possibilities. That she must 'resign' is a forgone conclusion; that was made clear at the last McDolittle indaba. Her total lack of 'control' of the front row, that she could be so easily ambushed combined with the panicked, stilted reading of a risible prepared statement pretty much bowled her out in the first innings, for a Duck. Many of the fellahin openly state a lack of faith in her ability to control, let alone lead the CASA pack out of the deeply entrenched system which provides unlimited power, without any form of challenge from the minister, Senator or independent inquiry. With impunity and legal elegance all inquiry is told to 'go boil your bottom'. Spence has now had a half year to ring in the changes - what have we got? Puff and Obfuscation in Spades, that's what. Resignation (pushed or shoved) is at odds on - 3/1 (on). (Risk three to win one). 'She-has-to-go' short odds favourite.
"If Gladstone fell into the Thames, that would be a misfortune; and if anybody pulled him out, that, I suppose, would be a calamity
The 'Grim Reaper' is at shortening odds; many prepared to support the fanciful notion that the first class lifeboat (with the gold trimmed toilet seats) is slowly, but surely sinking. The whisper of 'heavy duty' Mandarins at work persists - DPM Joyce only needed to ask the right folk, back the honourable Biskin to the hilt, make his directive clear and sit back and watch the experts do their job. I'm not certain - still good odds as an each way 'dabble' - 6/1 as I look at 'the book'.
“But the days passed, and expectations gave way to resignation—the hopeless resignation of the old, sometimes miscalled apathy.”
One of the riskier items to set is the latest submission from CASA to the 20/20 McDolittle Inquiry. A cool 269 pages of 'justification' and highly suspect 'data' defining the CASA position on Community Service Flight (CSF) operations. It is a long, tedious narrative; with (IMO) more holes in the 'operational' cheese than can be counted. Even though the judgement was in the CASA favour - legally; it falls far short of defining exactly how the basic operational problems can be resolved. Two fatal accidents; both instances of pilots persisting into meteorological conditions neither they or the aircraft was capable of dealing with. CASA may have won the argument but fail, dismally, to address, let alone rectify the radical cause. In short; gods alone what the fiscal cost has been to win that - but how have they improved 'safety'? I'll post 100/1 odds against CASA providing any sort of 'safety' improvement to operational matters; increased engine and maintenance cost do not a safety resolution make - its Bollocks. There has been repetitive instances of these accidents for a long while now; what have CASA done to prevent a re-occurrence; - SDA is the correct answer, not even a roadshow - (censored).
“If someone is able to show me that what I think or do is not right, I will happily change, for I seek the truth, by which no one was ever truly harmed. It is the person who continues in his self-deception and ignorance who is harmed.”
There is one 'small' item which I believe is worthy of some mention. The ATSB published a short report - HERE - which almost beggars belief. It begs but one simple question; where was the 'watchdog' - for a decade? I do not want me or mine flying in the same skies as the aircraft or pilot mentioned. Aircraft need maintenance of the regular variety to keep 'em airworthy. For a dedicated, black letter 'compliance' - big dollar outfit like CASA you could be forgiven for wondering what, in the seventh Hell they do to keep passengers and other aircraft safe. CASA have a massive budget, surely they could get out of the plush offices once in a while and actually check the maintenance status of actual aircraft, in real hangers on the few airfields we have left. Commercial GA understands the simplicity of 'serviceable' aircraft; but how many cockroaches are scampering about in the back of the hanger???
“Hector...boast while you may. The victory is yours, a gift from Zeus the Son of Cronos and Apollo. They conquered me...Listen to this and ponder it well. You too, I swear it, have not long to live. Already sovran Destiny and Death are very close to you, death at the hands of Achilles, the peerless son of Peleus”
Aye well; so much for the Bookies wee problems; it would be much simpler if we just adopted a rational. ICAO compliant rule set. The devil is in the details and it was a daemon wrote them into the Holy writ which our political, bipartinsane overlords are quite happy to support. To their collective everlasting shame.
“I don't believe anything's really inevitable until it happens. We just call it inevitable to make ourselves feel better about it, to excuse ourselves for not having done anything.
I have found the ultimate deterrent to 'excessive' walks in the bloody rain; the dogs have decided that DT's hairdryer is a 'thing' to be avoided whenever practicable. They decided it was better to be bored at home when its raining pick handles than be brought in and 'done' with the dread machine. Remarkable really; but not tonight. Duty to Aunt Pru done; no rain and a breeze to boot. Enough of the fools ramblings - Away dogs! Happily, I amble along behind looking forward to an illicit cigar and a few quite Ales, and a no bloody hairdryer evening.
Selah.-.