[Peetwo]

That man again - This time on MH370, courtesy the Oz:

Searchers hope arc reveals secrets of mysterious flight MH370

• Ean Higgins
  
• The Australian
  
• January 9, 2016 12:00AM
  

The holy grail is thought to lie on a navigational band known as the Seventh Arc, up to 6km below the waves, south of a dramatic underwater mountain chain and chasm in the Southern Ocean called Broken Ridge.

On that arc, in some of the most remote and wild seas on the planet, the hunt for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 launched this week into its final months, with three vessels and three unmanned underwater sonar “fish” — two towed and one darting around on its own.

By about June, the wreckage of the Malaysian aircraft that went down approaching two years ago will have been found or will keep the secrets to what happened to it and the 239 souls aboard locked away forever.

It has all the trappings of a blockbuster action-adventure movie and, no doubt, if the searchers do miraculously find the aircraft, a film will be made with a star-spangled cast.
If, on the other hand, the search of the remaining 40,000sq km of the target 120,000sq km of ocean is completed without a find, that will be the end of it.

Such an outcome would dash the hopes — apart from those of the victims’ families — of the hundreds of mariners, scientists, public servants, military sailors and airmen who have been involved in the search since MH370 disappeared on March 8, 2014, on a flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing.

The search has been in two phases: the initial sweep by air and sea for any wreckage on the surface (and, of course, any survivors) and, once that came to naught after a few weeks, the slow and methodical underwater mapping survey and sonar “photography”.

The mapping of the ocean topography was a required first step to prevent the two towed sonar fish from crashing into uncharted underwater mountains, and allowed the third, tether-free, torpedo-like autonomous device to be programmed to search the more difficult terrain on its own.

The sonar images have been analysed to see if any show wreckage — which would spark a recovery operation to retrieve the debris and the ultimate prize, the aircraft’s “black box” voice and flight data recorders.

There’s no collective estimate of the cost of the initial surface search in the Southern Ocean.

“The initial search phase involved 22 military aircraft and 19 ships from eight countries, covering search areas of more than 4.6 million square kilometres,” says a spokesman for Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss, whose transport portfolio covers the search operation. “All countries absorbed their own costs and we do not have an estimate of the costs borne by each country.”

But measured by what the federal government’s Joint Agency Co-ordination Centre, which is overseeing the hunt for MH370, says military and civilian government aircraft and ships actually have done, it would have cost hundreds of millions of dollars had it been carried out by the private commercial sector.

The surface search involved 345 sorties by military aircraft for a total of about 3000 flight hours, more than 30 per cent of which were flown by Royal Australian Air Force planes.

The aircraft burned up more than 25 million litres of aviation fuel, worth $34 million alone based on this week’s price at Perth airport.

For the second, undersea, part of the search, run by Dutch subsea survey company Fugro, Australia has committed $60m, China $20m and Malaysia the balance, thought to be about $10m.

Some critics claim the search was always a needle-in-a-haystack operation based more on hope and a desire to be seen to be doing something than a realistic possibility of success.
Others say it could have worked but authorities, using the wrong theory, looked in the wrong place.

Those in charge of the search insist that, while challenging, it is based on real and impeccably assessed technical indicators of the plane’s probable flight path, and is being professionally prosecuted.

“We are absolutely confident that we are using the best technology, approach and individuals,” a JACC spokeswoman says.

“Everyone is so dedicated. We are just looking forward to the day we have found it.”
The normal communication and radar identification signals from MH370 mysteriously went dead early in the flight, but an automatic hourly “handshake” from the aircraft to satellites continued for seven more hours.

Each of those handshakes has been analysed to produce seven notional “arcs” of where the plane would have flown, and part of the last one, the Seventh Arc, is where authorities think MH370 lies. The calculation of where to search has been adjusted by several variables, including ocean currents and weather on the day. But where to look also depends critically on assumptions of what might have happened on board, since different scenarios produce different likely outcomes of where it hit the water.

A key debate is whether the pilots were incapacitated and the aircraft flew on its own until “flaming out” for lack of fuel, or whether a rogue pilot flew it farther in a controlled fashion, including ditching it.

That, notes feted Qantas captain Richard de Crespigny, of flight QF32 fame, is the ultimate bind in the search for MH370: not knowing what happened on the flight makes it difficult to know where to search for the wreckage and black boxes, and without finding those it’s impossible to know what happened. “Pilots just work on facts, and there are no facts — (other than those) in the Southern Ocean,” he says.

Good to have Higgo back on the boards, also good to see he didn't bother getting any direct quotes from the resident MH370 super sleuth Muppet...


MTF...P2   

For & on behalf of Sandy (copied from his comment on the Byron Bailey Oz article, see here):

My post to the Aus article as follows:-

Byron Bailey makes a rational and considered case, in contrast to the inconsistent ATSB. This body has a poor record by any measure, including its attempt to heap total blame on a hapless young pilot in deference to the Civil Aviation Safety Authority and friends of government. The aforementioned Pelair (Rex subsidiary) ongoing ditching inquiry is only reopened by dint of a Senate inquiry. CASA and the ATSB follow the now dubious model of a 'GBE' (the dishonest terminology of Government Business Enterprise, neither businesses nor enterprising). The common practice of both is to decide an outcome then proceed to fit the facts where suitable. 

Why you should ask? Because these barely accountable independent bodies, separated from the Minister and not subject to the Public Service Rules are little caring beyond their inflated perks and salaries. It is that simple. Besides to be shown up as something less than smart or knowledgable from an outside citizen is bad for ego, Canberra status and possibly a negative response to the next round of planned industry levy increases.

In regard to the motivation of Zaharie, or possibly that of his copilot, only more information will help our understanding. What seems a bizarre and illogical act should not detract from reading the facts that may lead us to some useful conclusion.

Cheers,
Sandy

 
MTF...P2