[Peetwo]

“K” we got the gunfight bit right– wrong corral: maybe.

After some serious digging it seems (perhaps) the brick-bats related to the transfer from the AMSA – Search and Rescue (Annexe 12) to the Search and Recover (Annexe 13) is quite legitimate.  Whether there was; or, is some ‘friction’ between the camps remains firmly speculative.  The ICAO ‘requirements’ may have prompted the need for JACC as the AAI is not allowed to make public comment or statement.

The ATSB’s reoccurring forays into the media (Annexe 13 –{5.12}) however may be brought into question and go some way toward explaining the apparent differences between the rival camps.  Then there is the question of whether Malaysia stipulated Dolan, and only Dolan, to lead from the rear.  Indeed, it all remains passing strange, but part of the mystery appears at least to be partly, if not completely solved at very least.

It’s all fairly complicated, but it is, as it is.

In an effort to explain it is worth referring again to the abruptly ended, interactive, AMSA MH370 timeline where it stated...

"...As the search for MH370 transitions from a search and rescue operation to an investigation phase the Joint Agency Coordination Centre takes over the day to day communications..."

The JACC became operational on the 31st of March 2014 and the transition from a SAR phase (Annex 12) to an investigation phase (Annex 13) was already occurring?? This was despite the fact that the surface SAR would not cease operations for yet another month.

IMO the reason the Malaysians wanted to go to the investigation phase is that they desperately needed to wrest back control of the search & more importantly the narrative of the search, Annex 13 enabled the Malaysians to do that by being the State of registry for MH370.

However the transition from Annex 12 to 13 is dependent on (balance of probabilities) there being no survivors - hence going from SAR to 'search & recovery'.

How this decision could be justified, in the case of an aircraft disappearing without a trace, is beyond me but quite obviously legally this was somehow established?? 

It is interesting to note that in the AMSA/JRCC presentation to ICAO - MH370 SEARCH AND RESCUE RESPONSE – JRCC AUSTRALIA - under heading Search Challenges (para 2.2) at subpara q)) it states..

q) Clearly defined division of responsibilities between the search and rescue function (Annex 12) and the air accident investigation search and recovery function (Annex 13).

...which signifies that the JRCC found this 'transition' from Annex 12 to 13 as an impediment to their effective control & management of the SAR phase.

The irony of all this is that it is the Malaysians who were responsible for putting Beaker in charge of the greatest aviation mystery of all time. The question is did they do this by design or was there political/bureaucratic influence from our end??

IMO it is not possible to accept, after the Senate PelAir inquiry & numerous less than convincing Senate Estimates appearances, that either the Malaysians or the miniscule would honestly believe (unless there were ulterior motives) they had the best man for the job - or would they??

It would have been simple for Truss to appoint an acting commissioner with sole responsibility for MH370 in the interim, as the Chief Commissioner's contract was soon to expire. Instead Truss bizarrely extended the CC's contract for a further 2yrs, which coincidentally (like the SIO search) is due to expire in June 2016.

Following on from my post at #219 (above) the comments on the Planetalking blog - China sends hi-tech ship to MH370 search zone - through the endeavours of Ventus45, Dan Dair, Simon Gunson & Fred has led to similar ground.

Cheeky "V" observation :

2

Ventus45
Posted January 30, 2016 at 1:04 pm | Permalink

The Chinese abruptly abandoned all search activities for MH-370 when the JACC/ATSB took over from AMSA.

Since then, the Chinese attitude to the JACC/ATSB search could best be described as one of “studied indifference”.

So, one must ask, what motive could the Chinese now have for their apparent renewed interest in MH-370 ?

Will the Chinese join the ATSB search, perhaps using their “better SAS kit” for looking into those “difficult sites” that the ATSB has “mentioned in passing” at different times, or will the Chinese conduct their own “entirely independent” search ?

If the later, it will be interesting to see “where” they search.


That could be “telling”, specifically as to who knows “what’s what”, in the intel world.

Yes indeed "V", hopefully they won't get sneaky & disable the AIS.
However where the comments get interesting is Dan from #7:

Dan

...You’ll have probably seen those action movies, such as the Jack Ryan series, where the CIA says, “we can get a satellite in position in two hours”.


The crux of the problem was that for two days, Malaysia was insisting that the search was continued in the South China Sea, thousands & thousands of kilometres away from where the satellite debris field was finally seen.
(make of that what you will.!!!!)
 
Simon Gunson

Except Dan Dair, that two floating objects the length of Boeing 777 wings and bigger than a shipping container floating in close proximity to each other roughly where an airliner disappeared are not to be dismissed as mere rubbish without any attempt to locate or recover them.

 Fred

Nonsense Simon. The area where those objects were spotted was covered during the aerial search. Ships were also sent to the area, but the objects could not be located. A number of smaller objects were spotted from the air, but they could not be located when the ships reached the area. Some objects were recovered, but they were described as fishing equipment and other flotsam not related to MH370... 

 
And so it goes until #13:

Simon Gunson

Dan
Thank you for clarifying what flotsam you were referring to. The sea in the Gulf of Thailand was full of all sorts of rubbish including oil slicks found to be heavy marine grade diesel fuel flushed from ship bilges.

That Einstein quote is the definition of insanity of you want to look it up. that is precisely what Martyn Dolan is proposing when he suggests to go back over the same area yet again.


 Fred

So was the area searched or not Simon? In post #8 above, you said the sightings were dismissed without any attempt to locate or recover them. I pointed out to you that aircraft and ships were sent to the area but could not locate the objects. You told me I was wrong but then launched into a monologue describing the search I mentioned. Make up your mind.

I didn’t mention any ‘facts’ in my previous post Simon. I simply pointed out that search activities did take place in the area you described, contrary to your previous post. Those search activities are described on the AMSA website and have nothing to do with my memory.

Which brings me back full circle to my post #219 and the "V" post (above) & the criticality of that point in time, here is my contribution to the discussion:

.




[*]15
PAIN_P2
Posted February 2, 2016 at 10:18 am | Permalink

@Fred & @Simon I think this is the part of the AMSA timeline to which you are referring:

•The search continues.
•AMSA’s RCC receives commercial satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search for the missing aircraft. The Australian Geospatial-Intelligence Organisation assessment of them is ‘credible’; however, they may not be related to the aircraft.
•As a result of this information, four aircraft are reoriented to the 23,000 square kilometre area, 2,500 kilometres south west of Perth.
•A RAAF C-130 Hercules is tasked to drop datum marker buoys to assist in drift modelling.
•By the end of the day, two RAAF P3 Orions, a US Navy P8 Poseidon, a RNZAF P3 Orion and a RAAF C-130 Hercules aircraft have assisted in the search.
•A total of six merchant ships have assisted in the search since a shipping broadcast was issued on Monday night (17 March).
•The HMAS Success is en route to the area.

http://www.amsa.gov.au/media/mh370-timeline/

Also refer to AMSA presser with General Manager of AMSA’s Emergency Response Division John Young and Air Commodore John McGarry.

And these were the SAT PHOTs:




Then go to the 22 March where it stated:

•In the evening, China provides a satellite image to Australia, possibly showing a 22.5 metre floating object in the Southern Indian Ocean. AMSA plots the position but the object is not sighted on Saturday. The information is taken into account for Sunday’s search plans.

Then on the 24 March this:

•The Malaysian PM declares based on INMARSAT advice that the missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 ended in the Indian Ocean.

Significantly the next day PM Abbott declares the SAR mission (ICAO Annex 12) has officially shifted to ‘search & recovery’ (Annex 13), therefore effectively ending AMSA’s JRCC official control of the mission and giving control back to the Malaysians.
Coincidentally two days later Martin Dolan joins John Taylor in a joint presser & the daily brief states:

•The Australian Transport Safety Bureau receives new information as it seeks to refine the search area.

Then the next the daily brief states:

•On Friday 28 March, the search area shifts 1,100 kilometres to the north east, based on updated advice provided by the international investigation team in Malaysia.
•The new search area is approximately 319,000 square kilometres and 1,850 kilometres west of Perth.
•The credible new lead is based on continuing analysis of radar data between the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca before radar contact was lost…
..•Six vessels set off for the new search area, including HMAS Success and five Chinese ships.

Three days later the excellent, informative AMSA timeline concludes – shame!

Thereafter we are left in an information vacuum, which seems to be standard fare anytime ATSB Chief Commissioner Martin Dolan is involved in any high profile investigations or, in this case, ‘search & recovery ‘non-investigations’. You see it is all about control i.e. controlling the narrative.

16
PAIN_P2

Posted February 2, 2016 at 10:28 am | Permalink

I have always wondered why, given the huge amount of resources & expense in monies outlaid, why it was that the whole 7th Arc ‘priority areas’ wasn’t saturated with SLDMBs. According to records there was only 33 SLDMBs dropped in anger. Anyway for Simon’s benefit it would have been extremely interesting to have kept track of the SLDMBs dropped by the RAAF C130 on the 20 March…

“..RAAF C-130 Hercules is tasked to drop datum marker buoys to assist in drift modelling..”

TBW..P2 

IMO the key is in that timeframe, something happened that spooked the Malaysians to act quickly & concisely to redefine the search for MH370 from a SAR to a 'search & recovery' in no more than 24hrs (24-25 March). What that 'something' was we may never know? However it certainly changed the whole paradigm of the MH370 search that IMO was definitely not for the better...


MTF...P2