[Peetwo]

DPM Truss this time corrects the record?

In a letter to the Oz yesterday Truss wrote..

"...Letter to the Editor - The Australian - Correcting MH 370 claims by Byron Bailey

2nd February, 2016 

I write to correct inaccurate commentary by Captain Byron Bailey "Ignoring ‘overwhelming evidence’ is hindering search for MH 370", 29/1) .

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau has consistently stated analysis of the known facts most closely matches a scenario in which there was no pilot intervention in the latter stages of the flight, but it has never stated hypoxia was the cause of that circumstance. Assertions that the aircraft was hijacked by the aircraft captain are speculation.

Mr Bailey states Bayesian mathematical modelling was used to project the most likely flight path of the Boeing 777 after fuel exhaustion and flame out, and that the inputs of a conscious pilot would invalidate the modelling. This is totally incorrect.

The Defence Science and Technology Group’s Bayesian analysis modelled the flight from the last radar return up to the point of probable fuel exhaustion, not to the end of the flight. The modelling is valid regardless of whether there were any control inputs during this time.

Mr Bailey misrepresents the ATSB, saying it stated that “the right engine flamed out and in each test case the aircraft then turned left”. The ATSB has said no such thing. Testing conducted in the Boeing engineering simulator showed the aircraft began turning to the left only after both engines had flamed out.

Mr Bailey recommends engaging the US National Transportation Safety Board. In fact, it has been part of the Search Strategy Working Group since May 2014..."

If nothing else BB has certainly grabbed the Minister's attention, it took a while but maybe the Truss minders have finally worked out that nobody believes a word that comes out of his Chief Commissioner's office or mouth - one can only hope

Byron Bailey's response to the DPM's letter:

MH370 final phase: Warren Truss misses point in ATSB report

• Byron Bailey
  
• The Australian
  
• February 5, 2016 12:00AM
  

Last week in these pages I analysed the failures of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau in its ­assumptions about the final phase of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370.

Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss wrote to this newspaper taking issue with this.
Mr Truss said: “The Defence Science and Technology Group’s Bayesian analysis modelled the flight from the last radar return up to the point of probable fuel exhaustion, not the end of the flight.

“The modelling is valid regardless of whether or not there were any control inputs during this time.”

The Deputy Prime Minister continued: “Mr Bailey misrepresents the ATSB, saying it stated that ‘the right engine flamed out and in each test case the aircraft then turned left’ … The ATSB has said no such thing.”

“Testing … showed the aircraft began turning to the left only after both engines had flamed out.” In response, I note that Page 13 of the ATSB report published in December reads: “The aircraft behaviour after the flame-out(s) was tested … In each test case, the aircraft began turning to the left and remained in a banked turn.”

I cannot agree on a turn to the left after second engine flame-out, because this would result in autopilot disconnect and violent left roll into a spiral dive to hit the sea at 1200km/h.

A conscious pilot would most likely descend with enough fuel remaining to carry out a controlled ditching and this would invalidate the ATSB modelling.

And, contrary to what Mr Truss suggests, fuel exhaustion is end of flight — no autopilot and dead pilot equals big crash and lots of debris.

Byron Bailey, a former RAAF fighter pilot and trainer, was a senior captain with Emirates for 15 years. He has flown the same model Boeing 777 passenger jet as MH370.

I really find this tit-for-tat (in the Bailey/Oz v ATSB/Truss ongoing saga) quite bizarre, after all BB is really saying nothing more than he repeatedly said in the online version of Newscorp (i.e. news.com.au) & the QLD Daily Telegraph, dating back over a year ago. Why is it that Truss & Mr Mimi are only just taking issue with his opinions & theories on MH370??

Anyway here is the inevitable, "come in spinner", response from Mick & Andy:

Mick

50 minutes ago

Does anyone at The Australian bother fact-checking Captain Bailey's work before it's published?  Another week, another error of fact from Captain Bailey;  this week's clanger - "fuel exhaustion is end of flight". 

There is ample historical evidence to prove that the Captain is wrong on this point.  To list just two very notable examples:

- Air Transat Flight 236, was an Airbus A330 flying from Toronto, Canada to Lisbon, Portugal on 24 August 2001 that ran out of fuel over the Atlantic Ocean due to a fuel leak; after fuel exhaustion at around 35,000 feet it flew on for about 15 minutes, covering some 120 kilometres before making an emergency landing in the Azores.
 
- Air Canada Flight 143, the "Gimli Glider", was a Boeing 767 flying from Montreal to Edmonton, Canada on 23 July 1983 that ran out of fuel due to a miscalculation of the amount of fuel carried; after fuel exhaustion at around 35,000 feet it also flew on for about 15 minutes, covering some 120 kilometres before making an emergency landing at an auto racing track that was previously Royal Canadian Air Force Station Gimli, Manitoba. 

And should the Captain wish to argue that in both those examples, flight after fuel exhaustion was prolonged by the actions of flight crew, there is Helios Airways Flight 522 (a flight that the Captain himself has referenced on at least two occasions).

- Helios Airways Flight 522 was a Boeing 737 flying from Larnaca, Cyprus to Athens, Greece on 14 August 2005 that ran out of fuel after the flight crew were incapacitated/killed by hypoxia; after fuel exhaustion at around 34,000 feet it flew on, unpowered and uncontrolled, for about 4 minutes covering some 40 kilometres before crashing north of Marathon and Varnavas, Greece. 

So, contrary to Captain Bailey's assertion, fuel exhaustion is not end of flight. 

Mick
3 hours ago

Captain Bailey seems to be the one missing the point, once again.   Warren Truss took exception with the fabricated "quote" that Captain Bailey attributed to the Australian Transport Safety Bureau in his article last week, specifically:

"First, the ATSB [Australian Transport Safety Bureau ] states “the right engine flamed out and in each test case the aircraft then turned left and remained in a banked turn”.
Let's be clear on one thing - Warren Truss is 100% correct when he says, "The ATSB has said no such thing ..." 

Captain Bailey made the "quote" up by cutting and pasting a heading from a diagram with a sentence that appeared two pages and 550-odd words later in the ATSB report "MH370 - Definition of Underwater Search Areas" dated 3 December 2015 (downloadable from the ATSB website).   On page 11 of the report, in a section of the report entitled "End-of-flight", there is a colour-coded timeline diagram headed "Figure 6: End of flight sequence."   The first point in the timeline is named "Right engine flamed-out".
Two pages later, on page 13 is the "Search area width" section of the report.   The second sub-section is entitled "Simulator data"; the second sentence reads "In each test case, the aircraft began turning to the left and remained in a banked turn."

Captain Bailey has fabricated the statement he attributes to the ATSB by:
- adding a word of his own, the definitive article "The";
- inserting the phrase "Right engine flamed-out" (taken from the diagram on page 11);
- adding another word of his own, the conjunction "and"; 
- inserting the sentence "In each test case, the aircraft began turning to the left and remained in a banked turn."  (taken from page 13); and
- changing initial capitalisations to give the appearance of a coherent, complete and contiguous sentence.

For fear of stating the blindingly obvious, Captain Bailey made that sentence up and passed it off to us readers as a statement from the ATSB.   And as if that deceptive conduct was not enough the Captain then proceeded to point out to readers how stupid the ATSB were,quipping;

"That’s strange because, as any experienced multi-­engine pilot knows, if the right engine stops, the aircraft will want to turn right because of simple moment of forces."

Sadly, this week the Captain, and The Australian for that matter, seem happy enough to gloss over last week's deception - no correction, no apology. 


Andrew
40 minutes ago

@Mick It's interesting how Byron's story keeps changing.   Now he says "I cannot agree on a turn to the left after second engine flame-out, because this would result in autopilot disconnect and violent left roll into a spiral dive to hit the sea at 1200km/h". 

I have access to a 777 simulator too Byron.  Some colleagues and I had some spare time after a training session earlier this week and we tested the ATSB's scenario to see what would happen. Guess what?  The simulator behaved exactly the way the ATSB described in its report.  In other words, the aircraft entered a left hand turn that developed into a spiral dive with increasing speed and rate of descent.  It was by no means "violent", but it was very obvious that the aircraft would have crashed into the sea at high speed and a high rate of descent.

 
Funny how the BB articles seem to have a reverse-trolling effect when it comes to Mick & Andy?? Guys if you feel that strongly about it write to the Editor and complain or contradict the BB missive in print like Truss did - otherwise harden the fuck up, you're being played


MTF..P2