[Peetwo]

Mr Dolan " struggles to sleep at night"..."keeps him awake at times..."

HEY YOU, CHIEF!

Welcome to mine & many others Real Worlds, that have been screwed over by the apathy and lack of expertise from the ATSB & Co.

Karma is chomping on yours and others' arses. Voices are being heard of your past ghosts. Such as...

The disgraceful investigation of the ditching of a MedeVac Jet into the Ocean.
VH-NGA?? Remember. Sure you do

Australia's first International Crash. First ditching at night, in a storm, exhausted of Fuel. Full survival.
First in the World.
Did you all learn from it?  
Nope. 
Rather, this embarrassment has rested inside the UnderHull of Political Synchronised Binning!

If this investigation debacle is your Platform for International Air Accident investigation, then I think I you may need prepare for some serious arse chomping as it seems Karma it chasing your uncovered cheek/s!

So the question is, relating to both investigations.

Who is the Master of Puppets, you Muppets?

Sweet Dreams Mr Dolan,

 Ziggy


Just though I sorta had to say something truthful 'bout the history of the Man who struggles to Sleep. Considering the circumstances an ALL. 

What a load of total bull crap, Mr. Dolan doesn't lose any sleep at night, if he does its not because of mh370 being missing, its because of the people who will NOT give up on finding it....he doesn't care about aviation safety, and I'm sorry that PEL-AIR debacle was proof of that very fact.  He needs to get his head out of the sand and see the real world....if his family member was a victim of a aviation disaster, do you think he would be so flippant about it all...I think not!  Ziggy you are so right about him, considering what transpired in the past!!!  Do not let him rest, he doesn't deserve peace in any way whatsoever.  Its a crock of shit he is still in that position, his ass should've been fired long time ago.  PLANE and simple!!!!!!!!

Couldn't have put it better myself Bugsy - code for the Tim Tam cupboard is in your inbox.

Today in the Oz we have 'that man' back again to also call bollocks on the MH370 Super Sleuth Muppet narrative...

Flight MH370 is a mystery beyond the deep

• Ean Higgins
  
• The Australian
  
• February 17, 2016 12:00AM
  

Reporter
As the seas in the southern Indian Ocean get rougher, the mariners of the three Dutch Fugro survey group vessels will for the last time haul up the underwater search equipment.

A map showing the indicative MH370 priority search area in purple: Within the indicative priority area is a heat map showing the area of greatest likelihood in red.
MH370 pilot Zaharie Ahmad Shah.

As the seas in the southern Indian Ocean get rougher, the mariners of the three Dutch Fugro survey group vessels will for the last time haul up the underwater search equipment.

A map showing the indicative MH370 priority search area in purple: Within the indicative priority area is a heat map showing the area of greatest likelihood in red.
A few months from now, as the weather in the southern Indian Ocean gets colder and the seas rougher, it will come time for the hunters to head home for good.

For the last time the mariners of the three Dutch Fugro survey group vessels and the technicians and scientists on board will haul up the two sonar imaging “towfish” and a torpedo-like autonomous machine that can be programmed to search the sea floor on its own.

And — unless, of course, it’s found in the next few months — that will mark the end of the search for Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, a little more than two years after it went missing, sparking an aviation mystery all the more addictive for its tantalising clues and lack of firm conclusions.

The Australian, Malaysian and Chinese governments are abso­lute: once the 120,000sq km target search zone has been covered — 85,000sq km have been searched so far — that’s it. The secrets of MH370 and its 239 passengers and crew will never be known.

• More: The case for pilot hijack
  
• More: MH370 theory does not stand up
  
• More: Wild MH370 theory defies logic
  
  

Few would question the determination and skill of the searchers in trying to find MH370 in often difficult conditions. There have been setbacks, including medical emergencies, and technical problems, such as when a towfish ­recently crashed into an underwater mud volcano; it was recovered last week using a marine robot that freed it and plucked it from a depth of 2550m.

What critics of the search strategy say would be the real tragedy, though, is if all this effort and taxpayer money — $60 million from Australia, $80m from Malaysia and $20m from China — were for naught because they were looking in the wrong area.

Even worse would be if the decision on where to search were based not on the evidence and the likeliest scenario of what happened on board the Boeing 777 but rather on what would cause the least embarrassment to Malaysia.

In recent weeks, Australian Transport Safety Bureau chief commissioner Martin Dolan and the minister responsible, outgoing Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss, have worked hard to craft a narrative to discourage the public from reaching such a conclusion.

Their interventions through letters to the editor, “correcting the record” statements on the ATSB website and a radio interview have been mainly aimed at Byron Bailey, a former RAAF fighter pilot and airline captain.

GRAPHIC: MH370

In the pages of The Australian, Bailey has raised serious questions about why the ATSB has worked on the assumption the pilots were “unresponsive” at the end of the flight, rather than Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah being at its controls right to the end.

Many pilots and other aviation experts believe the evidence points to Zaharie having hijacked his own aircraft on the flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014. Bailey has written that an Australian official told him the FBI had come to this conclusion.
FBI Supervisory Special Agent Joshua Campbell told The Australian: “We are assisting our Malaysian partners with their investigation, but unfortunately I cannot comment further as this remains an ongoing investigation.”

Apart from Bailey, British airline captain Simon Hardy and US former airline captain and air crash investigator John Cox have said the rogue pilot theory was the most credible.

Cox has observed that, after breaking radio contact and turning off the radar transponder, MH370 turned around and flew carefully along the waypoints marking the border of the airspace sectors between Malaysia and Thailand, a possible attempt to avoid detection by letting each country think the aircraft was the responsibility of the other.

“The most likely theory, in my opinion, is that MH370 was an intentional act by the captain,” Cox has told The Australian.

Truss and Dolan have a different set of views. On the one hand, they have said they believe the loss of MH370 involved “human intervention”.

“In regards to the reason that MH370 turned off course, the ATSB has always held the view ­expressed by the Deputy Prime Minister that it is difficult to conceive any scenario that does not include some element of human intervention,” Dolan told The Australian last week.

On the other hand, they have said that the last stage of the flight involved no human intervention, and based the search plan on a scenario consistent with the ­pilots having fallen unconscious through lack of oxygen, known as hypoxia.

Last month, on ABC radio, Dolan was asked by reporter Sarah Dingle: “So is it worthwhile, then, changing the search parameters to consider whether the pilot deliberately took MH370 down?”

He replied: “We have certainly considered that as a possibility; all the evidence we have at the ­moment says that that is very ­unlikely.”

There are, of course, scenarios whereby Zaharie could have been flying the aircraft in the first phase of the flight and not at the end.

For example, pilots have the ability to depressurise the aircraft, and Zaharie could have done so once he had set the autopilot on the last leg south, sending himself and those under his charge into unconsciousness and death after the limited supply of emergency oxygen ran out, while maintaining a high altitude.

Observers think the remarks by Truss and Dolan regarding “human intervention” show they believe the likeliest theory is Zaharie hijacked the aircraft — but won’t spell it out because it would upset the Malaysians.

While Dolan denies it, critics such as Bailey suspect that, for the same reason, the ATSB has chosen a theory on which to base the search that does not require them to publicly support the rogue pilot scenario.

There’s a pattern to governments denying their nationals, as commercial airline pilots, deliberately killed their ­passengers.

In 1997, SilkAir Flight 185 crashed into a mangrove swamp in Indonesia with 104 deaths. Crash investigators determined that the aircraft’s loss was due to a deliberate act by the captain, Tsu Way Ming, who had been ­demoted and disciplined by the airline and had large gambling debts.

The Indonesian government has not accepted the findings.

Two years later, EgyptAir Flight 990 went down over the ­Atlantic en route from the US to Cairo, killing 217.

The US National Transportation Safety Board concluded that, after the captain left the cockpit, first officer Gameel al-Batouti ­deliberately crashed the aircraft into the ocean while repeatedly chanting “I rely on God” in Arabic.

The Egyptian Air Agency disputed the rogue pilot theory and put the crash down to mechanical failure of the elevator control system, a scenario the NTSB said could not explain the crash.

If Zaharie did deliberately take the passengers and crew of MH370 to their deaths, it would be particularly awkward for the Malaysian government because it could have been an act of political protest.

Zaharie was a supporter and distant relative of Malaysian opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, and is thought to have attended a court hearing the day before the flight when Anwar’s acquittal on sodomy charges was overturned in what is widely seen as a politically motivated trial.

Under international law, Kuala Lumpur is responsible for the ­investigation because the aircraft was Malaysian-registered.

The Malaysian agency responsible has released two interim ­reports thus far that state known facts, but it has yet to offer any ­conclusions on what caused the loss of MH370.
Dolan has repeatedly said it was up to the Malaysians to establish what happened on MH370, and claims the ATSB has come to no such conclusion.

But a review of the reports published by the ATSB that outline how it came to its search strategy show it did make a call, choosing among alternative scenarios the one that would mean it would not have to say Zaharie hijacked the plane.

The debate is fundamental to whether the search was destined to be a waste of time and effort from the start. The different scen­arios produce different indicators of where to look.
Bailey follows through the logic of what Zaharie seemed to be trying to achieve throughout the flight: for MH370 to disappear forever in deep and remote waters, giving no clues of where it would be found.

A controlled ditching under power, Bailey and Hardy’s theory goes, would see the aircraft land on water mostly in one piece, ­although the flaperons, if lowered, might break off, consistent with one being found washed up on the French Island of La Reunion.

However, the aircraft might have sustained enough damage to sink it quickly, as happened when Ethiopian Airlines Flight 961, out of fuel after being ­hijacked, ditched off the Comoro Islands in 1996.

There are also examples of ­aircraft ditching on water in one piece, famously including the US Airways Flight 1549, which captain Chelsey Burnett “Sully” Sullenberger landed intact on the Hudson River in New York after bird strikes took out the engines.

By contrast, an uncontrolled crash would leave large amounts of wreckage, baggage and cabin items floating for months, the ­argument goes.

If Zaharie was at the controls at the end, MH370 would have flown much farther than the ATSB theory of an uncontrolled crash would indicate, whether he did so under power before the engines flamed out or afterwards in a ­controlled glide.

In its search strategy reports, the ATSB said if, as it chooses to assume, the engines flamed out with the pilots unresponsive then the aircraft would have spiralled down quickly, hitting the ocean most likely within 10 nautical miles — 20 nautical miles, at most — of the flame-out point.

But a controlled glide with the pilot at the helm could have taken it 100 nautical miles, the report says.

The search is exploring a band 21 nautical miles to the west and 40 nautical miles to the east of the arc that the aircraft is thought to have travelled based on automatic satel­lite communication data — the seven electronic “handshakes” that tracked its path to the southern Indian Ocean.

Asked if this meant the area the aircraft would have landed in during a controlled glide was not being searched, an ATSB spokesman said: “Correct.”

The reports show the ATSB considered three “general classes of accidents” for the all-important “end of flight” sequence.

First was an “in-flight upset” in which the flight runs normally with regular radio communications until “an unexpected upset event such as a stall due to icing, thunderstorm, system failure etc”.

That scenario was easy to rule out. The flight had been far from normal. The radar transponder was turned off not long into the flight, radio contact was broken and the aircraft flew back over ­Malaysia before a turn south.

The second scenario was “a glide event” involving “normal en route manoeuvring of the aircraft”, fuel exhaustion and engine failure and a “pilot controlled glide”.

The third scenario was that of “an unresponsive crew/hypoxia event” generally categorised by aircraft decompression leading to loss of oxygen and the aircrew passing out, no pilot intervention, and loss of control when the aircraft ran out of fuel, leading to a rapid crash.

Had it gone with the “pilot-controlled glide” event, the ATSB would have had to say that it thought MH370 was hijacked by Zaharie. Instead, it went with the “unresponsive crew/hypoxia event” — despite clear evidence that the first part of the flight since it turned off course ­involved very deliberate flying.

Truss and Dolan, having said they believed there was “human intervention” early in the flight, have constructed a narrative to try to justify why the ATSB made the call it did: that there was no human intervention at the end.

The ATSB has noted that the long final leg charted by the satellite handshakes from off the coast of Malaysia to the southern Indian Ocean showed no pilot “inputs” — that is, no indication a pilot was manually flying the aircraft but, rather, it was on autopilot.

“The available information about the southerly flight of the aircraft indicates it is less likely that there were human control ­inputs during the latter stages of the aircraft’s flight,” Dolan told The Australian by email.

“That is the basis for current search priorities.”

However, as several pilots have pointed out, flying on autopilot is how most of a normal flight is ­always flown; the pilots normally hand fly an aircraft only on takeoff and initial ascent, and on final approach and landing.

The fact the aircraft was on autopilot for the last leg is no ­indicator on its own that the pilot or pilots were “unresponsive”; ­Zaharie could have been perfectly alive and conscious during this leg, letting the autopilot do the work while waiting until he chose his preferred time for a final ditch under power or controlled glide.

As Cox told The Australian: “Once the Flight Management Computer (autopilot) was programmed and executed, no further pilot action would have been required … there is no evidence, ­either way, to conclude or exclude pilot action.”

An extraordinary element in the report is that the ATSB sought to justify excluding the controlled glide theory because, if it were true, it would dictate a bigger search area and, by implication, multiply the cost of the search.

“Allowing for the fact that a maximum glide distance of 100+ NM would result in an ­impractically large search area, the search team considered that it was reasonable to assume that there were no control inputs following the flame out of the second ­engine,” the report says.

If MH370 is not found in coming months, relatives of the victims will call for it to be continued.

So will aviation experts who say it is too risky to leave the riddle unanswered. “Aviation does not do well with mysteries. MH370 ­remains a mystery,” Cox says.

 
{P2 comment: Still can't see why it is not possible for a hijacker (trained pilot/tech crew) to carry out all of what Bailey/Hardy/Cox etc. theorise??- Perhaps they're privy to more information than we are  }

A couple of quotes that go to the heart of contention in regards to the Dolan led ATSB MH370 SIO deep sea search.  

'The Australian':

An extraordinary element in the report is that the ATSB sought to justify excluding the controlled glide theory because, if it were true, it would dictate a bigger search area and, by implication, multiply the cost of the search.

“Allowing for the fact that a maximum glide distance of 100+ NM would result in an ­impractically large search area, the search team considered that it was reasonable to assume that there were no control inputs following the flame out of the second ­engine,” the report says.

Bloomberg:

Investigating the other possibility -- that someone was steering the plane and glided it without power until it hit the water -- would mean tripling the search area. That’s a very unlikely scenario, and it risks overwhelming investigators, Dolan said.


“Governments are just not willing to put the resources into that sort of potential extension,” he said.

Finally a couple of recent comments off the Oz article:

Juliet

7 hours ago

Looks like diplomacy is trumping truth again: an agency of one nation helping another nation save face, perhaps.  It wouldn't be the first time in history.  Maybe some wealthy benefactor, unburdened by the constraints of international relations will attempt to solve the mystery with a private initiative.  Given the details in this story, I expect said nations to issue all manner of decrees designed to surgically thwart such freelancing.  Sadly, it may take a miracle beyond technology and perseverance to solve the mystery of MH370.

James

1 hour ago

As an independent statutory authority, ATSB should be indifferent to political considerations. If Martin Dolan demurred to political pressure he may soon be spending more time with his family. How convenient that Warren Truss has already retired.

MTF..P2