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Captain's Log 01.11.16: ATSB with cap in hand?

Via ABC PM radio program:

Plans to extend hunt for MH370, at potential cost of $30 million
        
 
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Just when it seemed the search for missing Malaysia MH370 was drawing to a frustrating close with no result, PM can reveal that a plan is taking shape to extend the hunt.

The focus may shift north, to an area around the 34th parallel.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau reckons it needs another $30 million to mount the search.

It'll host a three day 'back to first principles' meeting of experts in Canberra from tomorrow.

The aim is to shape a proposal for the Transport Minister to take to his Malaysian and Chinese counterparts.

Today, Malaysia Airlines also agreed to give lawyers for the victims access to a huge cache of potentially sensational company records - so far released only to the still secret Malaysian police report.

It includes maintenance log books of the Boeing 777, and medical and personnel records of the captain and co-pilot.

Update 02/11/16: Courtesy ATSB

[ Download PDF: 2.68MB]
 
MH370 – Search and debris examination update
Published: 2 November 2016

Executive summary

This report provides an update to the MH370 search area definition described in previous ATSB reports. It comprises further analysis of satellite data, additional end of flight simulations, a summary of the analysis of the right outboard wing flap, and preliminary results from the enhanced debris drift modelling.

For background information, please refer to the ATSB publications available online at www.atsb.gov.au/mh370:

• Definition of underwater search areas, 18 August 2014
  
• Flight Path Analysis Update, 8 October 2014
  
• Definition of Underwater Search Area Update, 3 December 2015.
  

The Australian Defence Science and Technology (DST) Group[1] conducted a comprehensive analysis of the Inmarsat satellite communications (SATCOM) data and a model of aircraft dynamics. The output of the DST Group analysis was a probability density function (PDF) defining the probable location of the aircraft’s crossing of the 7th arc.

Details of this analysis and the validation experiments are available in the open source published book here: http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-981-10-0379-0.

Additional analysis of the burst frequency offsets associated with the final satellite communications to and from the aircraft is consistent with the aircraft being in a high and increasing rate of descent at that time. Additionally, the wing flap debris analysis reduced the likelihood of end-of-flight scenarios involving flap deployment.

Preliminary results of the CSIRO’s drift analysis indicated it was unlikely that debris originated from south of the current search area. The northernmost simulated regions were also found to be less likely. Drift analysis work is ongoing and is expected to refine these results.

 
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