[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 22.12.16: MH370 DOI archive entry 161222.

In deference to the thought provoking "V" theory for the Tri-parties pulling up stumps, I note that today Paul Howard has got a very different take on the why?

Courtesy PH blog... :

Should the search for MH370 continue ?
22/12/2016
 
My understanding is that despite ATSB having specified an extended search area of a further 25k square km north of the current 120k sq km zone, Australia intends to suspend the search at completion of 120k sq km zone. I also understand that the extended area is largely based on the latest CSIRO drift modelling; 
http://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5772119/mh370_ocean_driftv29.pdf

To return to my title question, I reluctantly have to conclude that my answer is no. The search should only continue if the base data is as correct as possible and it isn't. I agree with the political decision to SUSPEND the search after 120k sq km. There is nothing to be achieved by continuing a wild goose chase based on unreliable data.

I'm not an oceanographer and don't pretend to understand the complexities of the science but I do understand that a timing difference of three months can make a vast difference to the result of drift modelling. Why three months ?

From the above CSIRO report Executive Summary bullet point 3;
• the July 2015 arrival time of the flaperon at La Reunion

They've chosen the date it was first reported and the media credited a Johnny Begue with the finding.

BUT it was also reported that it was found by Nicholas Ferrier in early May.
I tried to resolve the conflicting timing by contacting the local reporter (Antoine Forestier) on twitter and here is the conversation;

For some reason the rest of the conversation is irretrievable from Twitter. When specifically asked about Ferrier he told me he was an unreliable witness. I asked why and he said it was because he didn't take photographs !
This link reports what Ferrier said about his flaperon finding;
http://www.smh.com.au/world/plane-door-washes-up-on-reunion-island-20150802-gipugz.html

He also saw the wing part that washed up on Wednesday – although in May, the barnacles encrusting its side were still alive. By the time it washed ashore again this week, the crustaceans were dead."Like the seat, I didn't know what it was," he said. "I sat on it. I was fishing for macabi [bonefish] and used it as a table. I really didn't pay it much attention – until I saw it on the news." 

So CSIRO are basing a very important and resource consuming drift model on the word of journalists whose only criteria for witness credibility is whether or not they took photographs !

Has there been a police interview of witnesses? To give benefit of doubt maybe Reunion Police sent a confidential report to ATSB. NOT ! France still holds the flaperon and the secrets it contains and Reunion reports to Paris.

Let's not forget CSIRO's first drift model and the statement that “it supports the current search area” later changed to “not inconsistent with”.

Geomar's first reverse drift model was VERY inconsistent with the current search area but Geomar at the time weren't superglued to the 7th arc. Their latest model comes more into line with CSIRO's latest but they are also using July as a start point and have related to 7th arc.

Then we have the Vestas Wind rudder post which washed up on Reunion and as it turned up after the flaperon put Reunion on the map, I think we can be pretty certain of its arrival time. We also have a very good estimate for when it departed Cargados & both Geomar and CSIRO should have included it in their models, to my knowledge they didn't. Johnny Begue later tried to take credit for another find which wasn't aircraft and probably another piece of Vestas Wind.

Factor in a May start date for drift models and the very slow drift of Vestas debris and there is a huge discrepancy between drift models and ISAT 7th arc.

This I believe, is why ATSB refuse to consider anything other than a July date.

Are they just fooling themselves or are they trying to fool us into thinking the ISAT data is carved in stone ?

For these reasons the search must be suspended until ALL the data is reconciled to a single area and that requires months if not years, to thoroughly audit and review every scrap of data and verify its source.

 
MTF...P2