[Peetwo]

What now for the JIT Annex13 MH370 investigation?

All excellent OBS from "V" & the Gobbledock but what will it mean when the final Fugro ship leaves the SIO 7th Arc area?

"V" mentions international conventions and although I'm a little hazy on the maritime conventions I am a little bit more cognisant of the aviation conventions that being ICAO SARPs, in particular Annex 12 & 13.

It is my understanding that at the moment Annex 13 continues to hold the primacy of both the MH370 'search & recovery' and indeed the investigation.

To help explain here is couple of quoted posts from this thread on 20 January 2016:

“K” we got the gunfight bit right– wrong corral: maybe.

After some serious digging it seems (perhaps) the brick-bats related to the transfer from the AMSA – Search and Rescue (Annexe 12) to the Search and Recover (Annexe 13) is quite legitimate.  Whether there was; or, is some ‘friction’ between the camps remains firmly speculative.  The ICAO ‘requirements’ may have prompted the need for JACC as the AAI is not allowed to make public comment or statement.

The ATSB’s reoccurring forays into the media (Annexe 13 –{5.12}) however may be brought into question and go some way toward explaining the apparent differences between the rival camps.  Then there is the question of whether Malaysia stipulated Dolan, and only Dolan, to lead from the rear.  Indeed, it all remains passing strange, but part of the mystery appears at least to be partly, if not completely solved at very least.

It’s all fairly complicated, but it is, as it is.

In an effort to explain it is worth referring again to the abruptly ended, interactive, AMSA MH370 timeline where it stated...

"...As the search for MH370 transitions from a search and rescue operation to an investigation phase the Joint Agency Coordination Centre takes over the day to day communications..."

The JACC became operational on the 31st of March 2014 and the transition from a SAR phase (Annex 12) to an investigation phase (Annex 13) was already occurring?? This was despite the fact that the surface SAR would not cease operations for yet another month.

IMO the reason the Malaysians wanted to go to the investigation phase is that they desperately needed to wrest back control of the search & more importantly the narrative of the search, Annex 13 enabled the Malaysians to do that by being the State of registry for MH370.

However the transition from Annex 12 to 13 is dependent on (balance of probabilities) there being no survivors - hence going from SAR to 'search & recovery'.

How this decision could be justified, in the case of an aircraft disappearing without a trace, is beyond me but quite obviously legally this was somehow established?? 

It is interesting to note that in the AMSA/JRCC presentation to ICAO - MH370 SEARCH AND RESCUE RESPONSE – JRCC AUSTRALIA - under heading Search Challenges (para 2.2) at subpara q)) it states..

q) Clearly defined division of responsibilities between the search and rescue function (Annex 12) and the air accident investigation search and recovery function (Annex 13).

...which signifies that the JRCC found this 'transition' from Annex 12 to 13 as an impediment to their effective control & management of the SAR phase.

The irony of all this is that it is the Malaysians who were responsible for putting Beaker in charge of the greatest aviation mystery of all time. The question is did they do this by design or was there political/bureaucratic influence from our end??

IMO it is not possible to accept, after the Senate PelAir inquiry & numerous less than convincing Senate Estimates appearances, that either the Malaysians or the miniscule would honestly believe (unless there were ulterior motives) they had the best man for the job - or would they??

It would have been simple for Truss to appoint an acting commissioner with sole responsibility for MH370 in the interim, as the Chief Commissioner's contract was soon to expire. Instead Truss bizarrely extended the CC's contract for a further 2yrs, which coincidentally (like the SIO search) is due to expire in June 2016.

MTF...P2  

Control of narrative.

Spot on P2, nicely done (again).  Now we have the cover story and can see the machinations.  As neat and tidy a piece of legal/political jiggery-pokery as you will ever see scripted.  Totally plausible and well within the ICAO framework.

But does it satisfactorily answer the underlying questions; the big ones.  IMO no, it does not.

AMSA remain the ‘expert’ body and even if the ‘transition’ from rescue to recovery had been explained to the public, the operation would have retained ‘search’ status.  As such, had it been acknowledged that AMSA must now, technically hand over the ‘search’ operation but would remain ‘active’ in an advisory capacity; i.e. they would continue but now brief ATSB, all would have been believable and above board.  Just common sense, the man at the back of the room could understand.

But it’s not done that way, is it.  ‘Snap’ and AMSA is set adrift, to be replaced by ATSB. Placing Dolan in charge was a calculated gamble.  Few, in Australia, even less in Malaysia would have heard of the Pel-Air accident, let alone the ‘inquiry’ or the results of the Senate deliberations, or the shellacking Dolan and ATSB received as a result.  So, to the world and it’s wife, Dolan was a ‘clean-skin’ wearing the mantle of the Australian reputation as a world class aviation nation.  The fact that Dolan (ATSB) and McCormick (CASA) had done more to damage that reputation than any other pair had done gets lost in the rhetoric.

Why the Truss advisors failed to recommend and promote someone like Folley to the front of house remains a mystery.  Dolan was ‘on the nose’.  P7 reckons that had they by-passed Dolan it would be seen as an admission of government fault in the Pel-Air debacle.  There were two choices; fire Dolan and wear the recriminations or; roll the dice, extend his contract and give him a plum job.  Makes sense to me.  Mrdak could not have two of his agencies publicly tainted, like it or not, there was a repair job to be done.  

Little doubt remains that Malaysia desperately wanted control of the narrative and the flexible, cooperative beyond all reason methodology best suited their purpose.  

Politically and legally it has been a ‘win-win’ situation.  The safety blanket deployed for Dolan’s soft landing, under his golden parachute.  Time will tell whether it has been of benefit to those who wait daily for news of loved ones; or, those of us who wonder WTF has happened, why it happened and ‘who-dunnit’.

Neat, tidy and Oh so legal; the exemplar; defining the art of jiggery-pokery and mass embuggerance.

Selah.

Ok so coming back to my original question - in line with 'international conventions', by rights this should mean the Malaysian JIT Annex 13 investigation can continue. Supposedly the investigation has been in some sort of holding pattern, so now the investigation formalities can be completed and the JIT can move to drafting a final report for DIP (directly interested parties) review.

The review process could be lengthy considering the numerous and influential parties involved and the vagaries of what is effectively an incomplete and inconclusive investigation...

However given most DIPs have representatives involved in either (or both) the SSWG and the JIT it is highly probable there has been much discussion already on the final make up and conclusions of a final report, based on not finding MH370. 

My best guess for the FR would be within 6 months. However as has been shown throughout the whole Malaysian MH370 (cock-up/cover-up) debacle, this is a very tentative best guess and I will not be surprised if there is another twist in the tale...


MTF...P2