[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 11.05.17: DOI archive entry 170511.

Pragmatic- as always.

As a professional and ‘interested’ party, I have empathy, sympathy and interest in discovering what happened to MH 370. But, that said, not nearly as much interest in, and discovery of ‘what really happened’. One need go no further than a cursory examination of ‘events’ to realise that this aircraft is not meant to be found. The abrupt disconnection of AMSA and the insidious disregard of the expert agencies AMSA relied on, to total dependency the one pony show of the government’s tame agency CSIRO is enough, standing alone, to raise eyebrows. This needs investigation, of the serious sort...

Drift modelling QON & ATSB fairy tales -  

ATSB MH370 historical reference quotes: 26 November 2014 via CCTV news:

Foley also confirmed the reports that debris of the MH370 might have been washed ashore to the Sumatra.

"Essentially, we ran drift modeling that estimated where debris might wash up, when they wash up. And those models indicated that the first point at which debris might come ashore is on the west coast of Sumatra," said Peter Foley.

Based on a drift model, the debris of MH370 might possibly be first washed ashore to the west coast of Sumatra 123 days after the crash, said Foley.

4 August 2015 - MH370: Aircraft Debris and Drift Modelling

Following the release of the MH370 - Definition of Underwater Search Areas report on 26 June 2014, a drift model was applied by one organisation to the wide search area defined in the report. The drift modelling was run to provide an indication of when and where the first possible debris would make landfall. This modelling indicated that the first possible landfall was on the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia and would have occurred in the first few weeks of July 2014. Indonesian search and rescue authorities were subsequently advised of the possibility of debris washing up on their shoreline.

Q/ Recently a fellow MH370 tweeper asked me if I had a copy of a debris modelling map, picture, or perhaps a graphical video (mentioned by Foley above) that showed how it was that the ATSB believed that debris would wash up on the west coast of Sumatra. To this date I am yet to find even a mud map drawn on the back of a beer coaster. Therefore this is just a general plea to any MH370 followers that may have a copy, of what at this stage remains a fictitious model - .

Q/ "..a drift model was applied by one organisation to the wide search area defined in the report..."  - Who was that 'one' organisation??

One of the members of the DMWG perhaps?? Reference quotes cont/-

A drift modelling working group was set up, comprising a number of organisations including: the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Asia-Pacific Applied Science Associates (APASA), the US Coastguard, the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and Global Environmental Modelling Systems (GEMS) to ensure that best practice modelling was put in place for the subsequent search. A number of search and rescue datum buoys were also deployed which were used to measure actual surface drift in the search area and to validate the drift models being used. Similarly, real-time wind and wave data from the search area was used to continuously update the drift model. The surface search for debris ended on 28 April 2014.

And from the ICAO paper: MH370 SEARCH AND RESCUE RESPONSE – JRCC AUSTRALIA (4-8 August 2014):

JRCC Drift Planning

2.18 JRCC Australia uses its own custom designed drift modelling program called Net Water Movement (NWM). For conventional searches, this program has proved a valuable asset to search planning. Results from NWM are validated and compared against another proprietary drift modelling program and also validated as soon as possible through the deployment of Self Locating Datum Marker Buoys (SLDMBs). The SLDMBs are floating devices fitted with a GPS receiver and Iridium satellite transmitter which provide water current and sea temperature information and may be deployed by aircraft or vessels. The buoys transmit their position and sea temperature regularly directly to JRCC Australia. 33 SLDMBs were deployed in this search.

2.19 Due to the magnitude of the MH370 search areas, and taking into account the lessons learned during the previous search for Air France AF447 of 2009, a drift planning working group was established to supplement standard JRCC Australia drift planning methods. Its purpose was to ensure that international best methodology and consensus drift modelling techniques were applied to the MH370 search areas with the primary aims of:

a) Providing the best possible area to locate floating debris
b) Provide the ability to conduct “Reverse” drift backwards to provide an estimated splash point, should debris from the aircraft be located.

P2 comment - Passing strange that there was no mention of the ATSB hypothesis, based on one organisation's drift modelling application, that debris should be washing up on the west coast of Sumatra?? 

Q/ I wonder what happened to the AMSA initiated drift modelling working group? Was it officially disbanded at the end of the AMSA controlled surface search? If so why?

 Reference quote: via - Australia working on new drift modelling for MH370 wreckage - See more at: http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/worl...EoJTs.dpuf

...Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) Chief Commissioner Martin Dolan on Tuesday dismissed suggestions there was disagreement among the five groups that make up the international team - America's Boeing Co, France's Thales , US investigator the National Transportation Safety Board and the Australian Defence Science and Technology Organisation - on where to search.
 
The teams initially agreed an area about 600 kilometres long by 90 km wide west of Perth was most likely. A new report released last month specified two high-priority areas further to the south.
 
"There is no disagreement, just the deliberate application of differing analysis models," Dolan said.
 
All five groups agree that MH370's final resting place is near the "7th arc" a curve that stretches from about 1,000 km off Exmouth, Western Australia, to a point about 2,000 km southwest of Perth, Dolan said...

Ahh yes of course, the top-cover specialist and master of word weasel confections - the Grand Muppet Beaker..mimimimimimi...



"There is no disagreement, just the deliberate application of differing analysis models,"

Q/ Okay so this was the first indication that there maybe dissention amongst the ranks of the SSWG - but what about the DMWG? 

References : Operational Drift Forecast Modelling in Support of the AMSA Search for Malaysia Airlines MH370 

& AMSA RAAA MH370 presentation: The Search for Malaysia Airlines MH370
Australian Search and Rescue (SAR) Experience

Note: Neither presentation mentions a model that predicts debris will wash up on the west coast of Sumatra. Also note the date of CSIRO's David Griffin presentation was July 2015.

Spot the disconnections & contradictions...

Reference: 4 August 2015 - MH370: Aircraft Debris and Drift Modelling

...In November 2014, the ATSB asked CSIRO to perform drift modelling based on the revised search area defined in the MH370 - Flight Path Analysis Update report released on 8 October 2014. This modelling indicated that there was an extremely low probability that any debris from MH370 would have made landfall at that time. As the CSIRO modelling was not consistent with the previous modelling performed by a different organisation, the question was asked as to why the two models were yielding different results and an error was found in the way in which BOM wind data was being transferred into the first model. While this error in that model had no impact on the way the surface search was conducted, it was important in order to understand over the course of time where debris might wash up and help verify or discount the various items found on beaches, particularly on the west coast of Australia.

"...the ATSB asked CSIRO to perform drift modelling based on the revised search area.."  - Q/ Why did Beaker only ask the CSIRO, why not the combined collective expertise of the DMWG?  

"..While this error in that model had no impact on the way the surface search was conducted, it was important in order to understand over the course of time where debris might wash up..."  - Keep the above statement in mind when you read the latest CSIRO debris modelling paper: CSIRO Report 2  - just saying...

Still working on more QON so definitely MTF...P2