[ventus45]

I think I must back pedal a bit (lot ?) on my initial comments to Slats11 some months ago.
In light of this new info, I think we may need to re-think the flight path, in light of the implications of this capability, and the facts that:
(1) the US "classified" all info on MH-370 very early on, and
(2) the White House press secretary who gave the "SIO brief" to the world - wasn't in the position for very long after that.
(3) if this capability is legit, the famous NTSB two tracks, 400 and 450 knots, should have been "one known track".
Very Innnnnnnnttteerrrrreessssssssttttttttiiiiiiiiiinnnnngggggg ..... Me-lud.

[Brock McEwen]

(First post - please excuse any failure to respect the local customs!)

I could really use an expert view on this one - thanks in advance for all professional assessments:


Official explanation for Mar.8, 2014 Maldives eyewitness sighting (per CAA head Ibrahim Faisal, per scmp.com, July 4) is now that this was actually DQA149, Malé to Kaadedhdhoo, with a stop at Thimarafushi, and that Kudahuvadhooans saw this flight returning from a large course deviation. Faisal claims this flight wasn't identified earlier because Malaysian radar "doesn't reach that far".

Additional info:
- Sunrise Kuda Mar.8 was at 6:15 UTC, about same time as sighting
- Winds were blowing lightly  E-to-W (per earth.nullschool.net)
- Eyewitness consensus: very low altitude (could make out door, e.g.)
- DQA149 was a DHC-8 (50-seater)
- Flightstats.com has scheduled flight going opposite direction, with no stop
- CAA head claims ATC records document landing at Thimarafushi at 6:33 UTC
- airline can't corroborate: CAA claims records likely "don't go back that far"

One pilot has expressed to me the following concerns:

- 40nmi off course (& low enough for witnesses to see door, be annoyed by noise, etc.) is anomalous enough to trigger EXTRA paperwork
- yet paperwork that should be available for even a NORMAL flight (logbook, e.g.) are absent - doubly odd
- that flight would be N-to-S (with stop at Thimarafushi) when schedule was S-to-N (with no stop) is bizarre

My challenge to you is simple: do you agree with this pilot's assessment, or disagree - and why? Huge thanks in advance for your informed judgment.

(My own deepest concern is with Faisal's explanation for not flagging up this flight sooner: if Malaysian radar can't see the skies around Kuda, then why was Malaysian radar cited as definitively ruling out the presence of a large jet back in March, 2014?)

For the record: I am not trying to sell/endorse any particular speculation - merely trying to collect hard facts and clear thinking. In particular: I'd prefer to avoid heated debate over whether Kudans saw MH370, and stick to cold, scientific assessments of the claim that what they saw was DQA149.

[Peetwo]

G'day Brock & welcome,

Yes the Maldives CAA investigation & official explanation into the apparent sighting of a  passenger jet never really added up.

Agree totally with the Pilot's observations and I would add that the local islanders would be very familiar with the Maldivian Airlines Dash 8, it would be a regular sight in and around the islands bringing mail & freight. Although not impossible it would seem highly unlikely that a regular scheduled service would be 40nm off track without notification to relevant authorities.  

40nm is approx. a 10min transit for a Dash8 and presuming DQ149 was operating IFR such a diversion should have been notified with either an 'Ops Normal' time designated for arrival or amended time for arrival (accurate to within +- 2 minutes).

Also agree that there should be a archived tech log for that flight. Not sure about the Maldives CAA but most aircraft records, maintenance records etc need to be stored for a lot longer than 1-2 yrs, usually up to 7 yrs . 

Cheers

P2

 

[P7_TOM]

Firstly, welcome to AP Brock.  We have all read and followed your discussions in the social media re MH 370.  We do appreciate logic, facts and non combative discussion; even idle speculation.  The only ‘local’ custom that does apply is we always play the ball – never the man, or do anything else which may startle the horses.  So welcome.

We do have Maldives experience to call on, however, let’s make some base line ‘operational’ assumptions, from what we have.

40 miles off course – in a cruise situation is ‘big’, but not unusual with storms around, 20 to 25 miles (nautical) is routine to ‘step’ around on track weather, 30 is relatively common, 40 not unheard of.  It depends very much on where the ‘diversion’ is started, fuel available and engine running time is always a factor.  Now then, for a Dash-8-400 with a load on board at low level a 40 mile ‘step’ at low level is an expensive business.  Draw a dot anywhere on track between the departure and destination and do the math – dot is a storm, no matter where you place the ‘storm’, which is the only reason for a 40 mile step, the aircraft must run at least an additional 80 miles (::15 minutes).  If the storm was near the destination, then 40 miles ‘running around behind’ is feasible.  Once, I racked up about 60 miles, skipping behind a storm at an island destination and following it through – so again – feasible.  Were there any storms around which would require such aerial gymnastics?

Paperwork – aviation is drowning in it.  50 seat aircraft operating scheduled, passenger services to ‘remote’ destinations require miles of it.  There must be tangible evidence from fuel dockets (time, date, place, amount loaded, by whom, which aircraft, the delivers signature and the aircrew acceptance signature).  That fuel load would be recorded, firstly on the fuel company records – as a sale - and on the aircraft ‘tech-log’ as the fuel on board (FOB) calculation made (endurance [time in air] officially recorded).  Flight deck log is an ‘official’  record with a statutory, minimum retain time.  With respect to weight, here again a mandatory calculation for take off performance and obstacle clearance, with a minimum ‘keep’ time.  But wait, there’s more.  Passenger manifests, border control, ATC records and, importantly – airport and air services charges records, all minimum specified time life which can supply a wealth of factual information.  The CAA claims of ‘time expired’ and discarded does not withstand scrutiny.  Anyway – payment for service records are kept many years – the money is always a solid trail to follow. Clever folk is they.

In short, if the movements of ‘that’ aircraft cannot be tracked down to the last gallon of fuel, the last sandwich ordered, the flight plan, the manifest, the local passenger lists and take off and landing charges; then something is terribly wrong.  If all else fails, passport and local government agencies records go back centuries.  A clear, unequivocal record could have and should have been made available to ‘eliminate’ the aircraft from our inquiry – as they say.

Operationally speaking, it is almost impossible – IMO – for there not to be a ‘paper trail’ which either positively rules out; or, confirms that the aircraft seen was a local service or, something else.

So the question stands – was it or was it not, positively, beyond a reasonable doubt DQA149?

[Gobbledock]

Dickhead creates a 'Where's MH370' book. (A rip off of 'Where's Wally').

Inspired by missing plane hunt, ‘Where’s Wally’ fan creates ‘Where’s MH370’ activity book
BY IDA LIM

Carpenter’s 'Where’s MH370' features 12 illustrations of scenes in places like North Korea, the moon and even hell.— What is the hardest thing in the world to find?

To 23-year-old Australian Matthew Carpenter, the answer is MH370, the Malaysia Airlines passenger aircraft that mysteriously vanished from the skies on March 8 last year.

 Thinking about the nearly year-long hunt for the missing plane while brainstorming over that very question one day, Carpenter was immediately reminded of his favourite "Where's Wally" (known also as Where's Waldo) books, a search-and-find children's series where readers are challenged to find the character named Wally in colourful illustrations.

It was therefore a "no-brainer" to the young, self-professed “evil genius” to create "Where's MH370", a book of illustrations much like the "Where's Wally" series, only this time, readers are to search for the missing aircraft instead of the bespectacled Wally, his signature red-and-white-striped shirt and bobble hat.

 "I think anyone who grew up with Where’s Waldo would find this book entertaining," the Sydney-based Internet marketer told Malay Mail Online in an email interview.

 Carpenter’s “Where’s MH370”, sold at AUD$15 (RM46) each, features 12 illustrations of scenes in places like North Korea, the moon and even hell. Readers are then challenged to spot plane debris like landing gear, the black box and passenger suitcases.

 “I had a really small team work on the book, all of whom wish to remain anonymous, which I find hilarious. The scenes were selected based on possible resting places for the plane.

 "We didn’t rule anything out,” he said.

 The young Carpenter does not seem too worried, however, that his chosen scenes or the book itself would be considered offensive to some.

 Asked if he considered the feelings of those whose family members had been aboard the ill-fated jetliner, the Australian replied: "I think a lot of people will love the book. Others may find it offensive and hate it which they’re entitled to do."

 He also doesn't fear the possibility of facing lawsuits for publishing "Where's MH370" or for the recent marketing stunt he pulled to promote the book by using The Daily Telegraph.
 "No," he replied simply when asked if he was worried.

 Asked for details, Carpenter confirmed that he had arranged for the recent handing out of copies of The Daily Telegraph newspaper in Australia with a false cover claiming that MH370 has been found and placing the blame on North Korea.

 “I did orchestrate that. It was done to promote the book. It was pretty simple to do, we simply designed the cover & had it printed out. We didn’t pay The Daily Telegraph,” he said.

 Carpenter declined to disclose how many people have so far reserved copies of "Where's Waldo" or what he plans to do with his earnings, merely saying that he was happy so far with the results.

 “At the moment what we’re doing is gauging interest. If enough people want the book, we’ll have a large print run,” he said.

 Carpenter is best-known as being the creator of the viral “Ship Your Enemies Glitter” website that he eventually sold for US$85,000, after having bought 7kg of glitter to send off to over 2,300 people for a payment of US$9.99 each.

 Describing himself on his Twitter account as someone who manages to find an audience for his products that no one wants or needs, Carpenter was also reported as creating the inane “Abusive Elmo on Demand” website and has claimed himself to be a creator of a “useless” website getting between 3,000 to 4,000 daily visits.

 The Malaysian government declared on January 29 this year that all those on board — including six Australians — the MH370 flight that went missing last March 8 are presumed to have lost their lives.

Debris believed to belong to the plane was reported in late July as having washed up on the shores of Reunion Island.

~ HERE ~

Another bad taste masterpiece from a member of a generation that has not only lost it's purpose and way in life, but who puts greed and self indulgence above its moral compass or other peoples feeling.

Tosser.

[Ziggy]

Dickhead creates a 'Where's MH370' book. (A rip off of 'Where's Wally').

Inspired by missing plane hunt, ‘Where’s Wally’ fan creates ‘Where’s MH370’ activity book
BY IDA LIM

Carpenter’s 'Where’s MH370' features 12 illustrations of scenes in places like North Korea, the moon and even hell.— What is the hardest thing in the world to find?

To 23-year-old Australian Matthew Carpenter, the answer is MH370, the Malaysia Airlines passenger aircraft that mysteriously vanished from the skies on March 8 last year.

 Thinking about the nearly year-long hunt for the missing plane while brainstorming over that very question one day, Carpenter was immediately reminded of his favourite "Where's Wally" (known also as Where's Waldo) books, a search-and-find children's series where readers are challenged to find the character named Wally in colourful illustrations.

It was therefore a "no-brainer" to the young, self-professed “evil genius” to create "Where's MH370", a book of illustrations much like the "Where's Wally" series, only this time, readers are to search for the missing aircraft instead of the bespectacled Wally, his signature red-and-white-striped shirt and bobble hat.

 "I think anyone who grew up with Where’s Waldo would find this book entertaining," the Sydney-based Internet marketer told Malay Mail Online in an email interview.

 Carpenter’s “Where’s MH370”, sold at AUD$15 (RM46) each, features 12 illustrations of scenes in places like North Korea, the moon and even hell. Readers are then challenged to spot plane debris like landing gear, the black box and passenger suitcases.

 “I had a really small team work on the book, all of whom wish to remain anonymous, which I find hilarious. The scenes were selected based on possible resting places for the plane.

 "We didn’t rule anything out,” he said.

 The young Carpenter does not seem too worried, however, that his chosen scenes or the book itself would be considered offensive to some.

 Asked if he considered the feelings of those whose family members had been aboard the ill-fated jetliner, the Australian replied: "I think a lot of people will love the book. Others may find it offensive and hate it which they’re entitled to do."

 He also doesn't fear the possibility of facing lawsuits for publishing "Where's MH370" or for the recent marketing stunt he pulled to promote the book by using The Daily Telegraph.
 "No," he replied simply when asked if he was worried.

 Asked for details, Carpenter confirmed that he had arranged for the recent handing out of copies of The Daily Telegraph newspaper in Australia with a false cover claiming that MH370 has been found and placing the blame on North Korea.

 “I did orchestrate that. It was done to promote the book. It was pretty simple to do, we simply designed the cover & had it printed out. We didn’t pay The Daily Telegraph,” he said.

 Carpenter declined to disclose how many people have so far reserved copies of "Where's Waldo" or what he plans to do with his earnings, merely saying that he was happy so far with the results.

 “At the moment what we’re doing is gauging interest. If enough people want the book, we’ll have a large print run,” he said.

 Carpenter is best-known as being the creator of the viral “Ship Your Enemies Glitter” website that he eventually sold for US$85,000, after having bought 7kg of glitter to send off to over 2,300 people for a payment of US$9.99 each.

 Describing himself on his Twitter account as someone who manages to find an audience for his products that no one wants or needs, Carpenter was also reported as creating the inane “Abusive Elmo on Demand” website and has claimed himself to be a creator of a “useless” website getting between 3,000 to 4,000 daily visits.

 The Malaysian government declared on January 29 this year that all those on board — including six Australians — the MH370 flight that went missing last March 8 are presumed to have lost their lives.

Debris believed to belong to the plane was reported in late July as having washed up on the shores of Reunion Island.

~ HERE ~

Another bad taste masterpiece from a member of a generation that has not only lost it's purpose and way in life, but who puts greed and self indulgence above its moral compass or other peoples feeling.

Tosser.

Hey Carpenter,

A classic dis-connected, de-sensitised, de-emotionalised, self proclaimed "evil genius". 
Alarm bells!

But no, the Medium will pick this up and promote it free for him. 
Rather than a suggestive to boycott the despicable shit he has created through others pain.
Then, locked him up for a bit. No computer, no phone. Just reality.
You insulting young prick. 

I'd like to meet up with you.

Would you create a sick game regarding the plane crash I was in.
Try it!

Very, very careful of Karma, she a bitch with sharp teeth sometimes. I'd say she's chasing for a chomping of your arse like, well a game. Fancy that happening. Wouldn't be to funny then, would it?

But guess what, Reality Alert, "evil genius", it's not a game. 

It's called Reality. Perhaps a thing you could be in touch with.
Perhaps too late.

Alarm bells Feds! This is Sick. Just Sick.

Shame him, don't Fame him. Such a "normal" way of certain media productions/print now. 

Sicko. No really, you need help Mr Carpenter if you think what you & your buddies are doing is acceptable.

IT IS NOT ACCEPTABLE WHAT MR "Evil Genius" HAS DONE. 
It's called profiting from others pain.
How dare he.
BOYCOTT HIM!

Disgusted.
Ziggy

[Peetwo]

Firstly, welcome to AP Brock.  We have all read and followed your discussions in the social media re MH 370.  We do appreciate logic, facts and non combative discussion; even idle speculation.  The only ‘local’ custom that does apply is we always play the ball – never the man, or do anything else which may startle the horses.  So welcome.

We do have Maldives experience to call on, however, let’s make some base line ‘operational’ assumptions, from what we have.

40 miles off course – in a cruise situation is ‘big’, but not unusual with storms around, 20 to 25 miles (nautical) is routine to ‘step’ around on track weather, 30 is relatively common, 40 not unheard of.  It depends very much on where the ‘diversion’ is started, fuel available and engine running time is always a factor.  Now then, for a Dash-8-400 with a load on board at low level a 40 mile ‘step’ at low level is an expensive business.  Draw a dot anywhere on track between the departure and destination and do the math – dot is a storm, no matter where you place the ‘storm’, which is the only reason for a 40 mile step, the aircraft must run at least an additional 80 miles (::15 minutes).  If the storm was near the destination, then 40 miles ‘running around behind’ is feasible.  Once, I racked up about 60 miles, skipping behind a storm at an island destination and following it through – so again – feasible.  Were there any storms around which would require such aerial gymnastics?

Paperwork – aviation is drowning in it.  50 seat aircraft operating scheduled, passenger services to ‘remote’ destinations require miles of it.  There must be tangible evidence from fuel dockets (time, date, place, amount loaded, by whom, which aircraft, the delivers signature and the aircrew acceptance signature).  That fuel load would be recorded, firstly on the fuel company records – as a sale - and on the aircraft ‘tech-log’ as the fuel on board (FOB) calculation made (endurance [time in air] officially recorded).  Flight deck log is an ‘official’  record with a statutory, minimum retain time.  With respect to weight, here again a mandatory calculation for take off performance and obstacle clearance, with a minimum ‘keep’ time.  But wait, there’s more.  Passenger manifests, border control, ATC records and, importantly – airport and air services charges records, all minimum specified time life which can supply a wealth of factual information.  The CAA claims of ‘time expired’ and discarded does not withstand scrutiny.  Anyway – payment for service records are kept many years – the money is always a solid trail to follow. Clever folk is they.

In short, if the movements of ‘that’ aircraft cannot be tracked down to the last gallon of fuel, the last sandwich ordered, the flight plan, the manifest, the local passenger lists and take off and landing charges; then something is terribly wrong.  If all else fails, passport and local government agencies records go back centuries.  A clear, unequivocal record could have and should have been made available to ‘eliminate’ the aircraft from our inquiry – as they say.

Operationally speaking, it is almost impossible – IMO – for there not to be a ‘paper trail’ which either positively rules out; or, confirms that the aircraft seen was a local service or, something else.

So the question stands – was it or was it not, positively, beyond a reasonable doubt DQA149?

Hey Carpenter,



A classic dis-connected, de-sensitised, de-emotionalised, self proclaimed "evil genius". 
Alarm bells!

But no, the Medium will pick this up and promote it free for him. 
Rather than a suggestive to boycott the despicable shit he has created through others pain.
Then, locked him up for a bit. No computer, no phone. Just reality.
You insulting young prick. 

I'd like to meet up with you.

Would you create a sick game regarding the plane crash I was in.
Try it!

Very, very careful of Karma, she a bitch with sharp teeth sometimes. I'd say she's chasing for a chomping of your arse like, well a game. Fancy that happening. Wouldn't be to funny then, would it?

But guess what, Reality Alert, "evil genius", it's not a game. 

It's called Reality. Perhaps a thing you could be in touch with.
Perhaps too late.

Alarm bells Feds! This is Sick. Just Sick.

Shame him, don't Fame him. Such a "normal" way of certain media productions/print now. 

Sicko. No really, you need help Mr Carpenter if you think what you & your buddies are doing is acceptable.

IT IS NOT ACCEPTABLE WHAT MR "Evil Genius" HAS DONE. 
It's called profiting from others pain.
How dare he.
BOYCOTT HIM!

Disgusted.
Ziggy

Well done Ziggy and enough said I reckon, let's not give this dickhead anymore free exposure shall we..  

Ok then back to the main game  i.e. trying to sort the wheat from the chaff on the tragic disappearance of MH370.

Where were we..? Ah yes P7 replying to Brock's query:

For the record: I am not trying to sell/endorse any particular speculation - merely trying to collect hard facts and clear thinking. In particular: I'd prefer to avoid heated debate over whether Kudans saw MH370, and stick to cold, scientific assessments of the claim that what they saw was DQA149.

   
To which P7 IMO did a stellar job...

MH370 Maldives theory dismissed  

• by: HEDLEY THOMAS
  
• From: The Australian
  
• June 20, 2015 12:00AM
  

National Chief Correspondent
Brisbane



A view from the air of the capital of the Maldives, Male. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen Source: News Corp Australia

Sightings by villagers in the Maldives in March last year of an aircraft they believed could have been the missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 have been reinvestigated by the head of the country’s aviation authority, resulting in the theory being all but ruled out.  

Maldives Civil Aviation Authority chairman Ibrahim Faizal said in early April that he was concerned the villagers’ claims had not been properly reviewed by Defence or other agencies in his country.

The Malaysia Airlines plane, with 12 crew and 227 passengers on board, went missing on March 8 last year.

Mr Faizal said at the time he believed the aircraft the villagers saw crossing the remote island of Kuda Huvadhoo at a relatively low altitude on the morning it would have crashed could have been the Malaysian jet.

Yesterday, he said he was now confident the villagers had seen a much smaller, 50-seat aircraft near the island at the time.


“I wanted to revisit it because I did not have all the information for me to make a call on it, hence why I had another look at this thing again,’’ he said in an email.


“I was not personally happy or satisfied at the time over what had happened (with the official review of the witness accounts).


“To be honest, now I have no reason to believe that it’s the MH flight. I am more firm in my conviction after speaking to the island council now. This whole issue was confused by other matters like the sighting of a fire extingu­isher — we found that this is not from any aircraft, let alone a B 777.


“I am convinced now, given all the information and data we have, that it was not the MH but most likely the Island Aviation Bombardier Dash 8.”

Island villagers told The Weekend Australian in March that the aircraft they saw was very large with red markings, similar to the missing jet.

Court official Abdu Rasheed Ibrahim, 47, one of several witnesses, said: “I watched this very large plane bank slightly and I saw its colours — the red and blue lines — below the windows, then I heard the loud noise. It was unusual, very unusual.”

The Australia-led search for the plane, in the southern Indian Ocean more than 5000km away, is guided by calculations of weather conditions, fuel exhaustion and other variables.

No trace of it has been found

Not selling or endorsing anything but IMO it is quite obvious that the Maldives CAA Head is lying, the question is for what possible reason/motivation did he do this?


MTF..P2   

[slats11]

Thanks Ventus. No apology required. I agree that SBIRS likely has the capability to track jets.

2 streams of exhaust gas would create 2 linear areas of greatly increased temperature - the relevant background would be the earth's surface (and not the adjacent atmosphere).

I don't know how quickly this exhaust would equilibrate / dissipate into the ambient atmosphere. Say this exhaust completely equilibrates with the ambient atmosphere in 1 second. Cruise approx 1000km/h = 278 m/sec. So 2 heat signatures that are 250-300m long, are parallel, and are moving at 1000km/h.

Given terrorist threats and a long history of airline bombings, I expect people would be listening out for ATC that had lost a large jet. In a post 9/11 world, my guess is that SBIRS would be looking for a lost jet.


Don't really know what to think about the Maldives sighting. Odd there is no paper trail of that Dash being off course. On the other hand, there would have to be a lot of people involved in any sinister explanation why MH370 ended up there. Sooner or later word would get out - look at Snowden. There would be a less damaging way of stopping any shipment. The risk seems far too high.

There were a number of "sightings" by people on the ground - the oil rig worker in SCS, people near Penang, that female sailor who gave a vague story months later. and the Maldives. At least some of them must be are wrong, and my suspicion is the Maldives sightings are also wrong.

[Brock McEwen]

Thanks for the warm welcome, and thoughtful responses - much appreciated.

P7_TOM wondered about storm avoidance; I feel the site linked to below suggests strongly the absence of wind speeds normally associated with significant weather events:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#2014/03/08/...,6.64,2672

For the relevant time and region, wind speeds (from surface up to/including cruising altitude) appear never to exceed 17 knots.

[Kharon]

Brock - CAA head claims ATC records document landing at Thimarafushi at 6:33 UTC.

I regret, time is at a premium today otherwise I’d do the research.  If we can establish the departure and destination ports it should be possible to obtain the official weather data for the route flown, most meteorological services keep records and a MSL prognosis (or satellite picture) for the area on the day would resolve the storm avoidance question.

I have to agree with Slats and TOM – why the ‘mystery’? It’s apiece of cake to categorically establish from recorded documents that a legitimate passenger carrier went from A to B obtain all summary and sundry details, including the colour of the pilots socks.  

Anyway – you are most welcome to Aunty Pru.  

Toot – toot.

[Gobbledock]

Kharon, very true. Most Met bureau's around the world keep records of weather for obvious reasons. As an example, in Australia the BOM keeps records dating back a century. I've done investigations where I have had to search out data from a year earlier and look at wind speeds at certain altitudes at certain times of the day on a particular date, and it is all there, including temperatures.

With the advent of internet, cyber data collection and record keeping it is quite easy, with a bit of manpower and resource time, to backtrack in time and gather evidence.

Safe flying gents

[ventus45]

Final Waypoint Theory

Simply put, the main points are:-
I am convinced that:
(a) It was not an accident - but a meticulously planned and perfectly executed "vanishing".

(b) Since the ATSB has never validated the calibration of the 6th and 7th arcs by making measurements "at sea" for dawn ionespheric conditions, that they are suspect. I think they should be closer to 3F-1 nadir as shown - due to L band ray path bending and delay effects - which combined - mean that the BTO's for the 6th and 7th arcs (00:11z and 00:19z) are more than they actually were, thus, the "range" is shorter.

c) The Mission Plan ( deduced ) was to ditch just after local dawn.

(d) Since the plan required ditching at/post dawn, it was necessary to "pre-calculate" a "flight plan" that allowed for:-

   (i) the position of the solar terminator at 00:00 zulu, and for "one tenth hour increments" to account for possible time delays at departure, enroute, and or engine failure, which could increase "endurance" at low altitude at slower speeds.

   (ii) a range of latitudes commensurate with probable maximum range and a lesser maximum endurance range.

   (iii) to account for all of the above for a range of possible flight dates.

   (iv) this required a fool proof navigation plan to the SIO, ready to go - at a moments notice - which must ensure that:-

     (iv-1) the track flown from the equatorial crossing point (must be 95E) is "parallel" to the advancing dawn sunline - i.e. solar terminator.

     (iv-2) this requires a "simple to remember" destination way-point that is "day of the year specific".

I will not bore you with all the calculations and specifics, since the attached image shows the basics.

I am convinced the final way-point used was 69 south 69 east.

I have plotted two "zones" for the search, the more southern based on the ATSB Arcs, and the other, based on my shorter arcs. 
  

V45-MH-370-web-ver-01-2015Nov02.jpg Size: 185.12 KB  Downloads: 28

I hope Richard Cole does not mind, but see below to show terminator and 69s 69e track.

Richard_Cole_chart_with_added_00z_terminator_and_track_00_95e_to_69s_69e .jpg Size: 113.78 KB  Downloads: 19

[P7_TOM]

Oh, well done V old chap, what a good construct, top marks. Bravo.  Other ‘boffins’ been playing with the possibilities have long fancied some of the most remote islands in the SIO as ‘worth – a- look”.  

As a geography lesson, the area is fascinating.

Worldatlas   -   WWO  -  Wikipedia



Courtesy - EoEarth.

Sometimes I sits, and thinks.





Other times, I just sits.





ALL - more than worthy of five minutes consideration.



Cheers V.  CF following.

[ventus45]

My original theory (now Plan B) was / is Isle Saint Paul.
https://youtu.be/VH90elupdxQ

[Kharon]

Top marks “V” – good work and a lot more acceptable theory than some of the commercialised clap-trap pedalled to the idiot media. Great video - 'oribble music...

Best hope CASA don’t see the video; they’ll have a tiger team on a pilot hunt immediately.  Can’t have helicopters doing ‘extravagant’ turns, near cloud, at low level.  No Sir, they’ll be off to Paris (all expenses) to persecute the poor sod.

[ventus45]

With the ATSB search ongoing, with their highest priority zones done, with the equipment apparently suitable and sufficiently capable and gathering data of the expected quality, and up to now, with no hint of anything found, only one conclusion can be drawn.

The ATSB are looking in the wrong place.

The arc must be wrong.

What we have is a waste of over a year and heading for $100 million, for what ?

QUESTION:-
Why have the ATSB never validated the arcs (all of them) at sea ?

It is easy to do, relatively cheap, and would only entail the use of Ocean Shield for a few weeks.

[ventus45]

http://davidlearmount.com/2015/11/05/lat...cribe-blog

Captain Simon Hardy's recent refinements to the aircraft’s final descent profile put it at S39 22′ 46″ E087 06′ 20″ (-39.371217° 87.368994°).

Capt Simon Hardy.gif Size: 462.02 KB  Downloads: 19

Richard_Cole_chart_with_Hardy_added.jpg Size: 118.35 KB  Downloads: 20

[ventus45]

3rd December 2015

Latest Update on search for MH-370

ATSB - cANBERRA

https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications/inv...4-054.aspx

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5733650/AE...ec2015.pdf

https://www.atsb.gov.au/media/5733804/Ba...ec2015.pdf

JACC - cANBERRA

https://www.atsb.gov.au/mh370-pages/upda...pdate.aspx

[ventus45]

The entire search is dependent on where the TRUE FMT is.

The only evidence for the "official" FMT north of Ache is derived from the MY Malacca Strait Track.  The only evidence for that is the Lido radar slide.

The "actual" FMT could be anywhere along a section of the 18:27 utc arc over four hundred nautical miles long, from north of Ache to west of Sibolga City. (approx 8 deg N to 1.6 deg N)

The DSTG, in going for the northern FMT, is at pains to point out (i.e. = cover their arses), that the radar data they are using, is NOT raw radar data at all, but is in fact, only a table of 10sec/lat/lon/alt given to them by Malaysia.

The DSTG did not, and apparently will not, publish this table.

Why not ?

SECRET ?

Come on.

We are being fed garbage on top of garbage.

The DSTG Report is nothing more than justification of the existing search strategy.  It contains "nothing new", and is thus, useless.

Reconsider this:-
A "southern" FMT, pretty close to the most southern limit possible.
http://auntypru.com/forum/-Less-Noise-an...544#pid544






Thus, there is a "range" of possible positions, over 400 miles long, along the 18:27 utc arc, that MH-370 "could have been", when it crossed that arc.

Perhaps Capt Simon Hardy (and others) could re-run their mathematical models, at say 10nm intervals down this section of the 18:27 utc arc, to the 22:41 utc arc, (as the baseline) and then project onwards to see where they end up on the 00:11 utc and 00:19 utc arcs.

I suggest using the 18:27 utc and 22:41 utc arcs as the "baselines" for calculations, specifically, because I still have my doubts about the accuracy of the 00:11 utc and 00:19 utc arcs, due to "dawn ionospheric issues" with "L" Band signals.  The earlier arcs, should be "good".

[P7_TOM]

Maybe old age syndrome; but, I keep being drawn to UPROB as in, U have a PROBlem – about here.  Without ‘hard’ and I mean ‘real’ facts you could throw a dart at the SIO and be, realistically, as accurate as the next fellah.  

The DSTG Report is nothing more than justification of the existing search strategy.  It contains "nothing new", and is thus, useless.

I wonder who the real criminals are?.  Data – give me facts: or; find the Chinese submarine parked over the wreck; or, call ET.

Here’s another fine mess.