There can be no investment in General Aviation in Australia at all while CASA is permitted to keep doing what it currently does. investment due diligence focuses on various types off risk - commercial risk - what competitors might do, business risk - the nature of the business eg drought, floods etc. and lastly sovereign risk.- the risk of government corruption nationalisation, etc.
In first world countries sovereign risk is normally zero. there is no corruption, the country won’t go bankrupt, there is rule of law, contracts are honoured, etc.
Unfortunately for Australia, sovereign risk in aviation investment is not zero as it should be. The case of Buckley/APTA is a classic case of sovereign risk, if you are to believe Buckley, he tried to do everything right but was still destroyed. No honest investor worth the name will touch Australian GA with a ten foot pole - way too much CASA risk.
And by definition, you can be sure that anyone who does invest has an “angle” or “connections” because that is obviously the only way to insure against CASA regulatory risk. It appears THAT is what Buckley obviously failed to do. I do not believe any other explanation makes sense.
QANTAS, Virgin have too much political clout. The regional airlines are also politically well connected.
Ask yourself this: APTA was crucified. SOAR a dodgy corrupt, fraudulent, dangerously incompetent flight school that seriously injured some of its students was permitted by CASA to thrive. Why is that? Similarly, individuals and businesses seem to be closed or punished for no consistent reasons.
Perhaps all our breast beating about “the iron ring”, personalities, blighted careers, revenge, etc., etc., is actually wrong. Perhaps the simplest explanation is that the organisation is no different from the Queensland and NSW Police of yore? Brown paper bags? We generally don’t think that way in Australia. What if we should? What if CASA is just a nest of clever crooks?
In that case perhaps we should rename the DAS as “Godfather”? Sorry, “Godperson”.
In first world countries sovereign risk is normally zero. there is no corruption, the country won’t go bankrupt, there is rule of law, contracts are honoured, etc.
Unfortunately for Australia, sovereign risk in aviation investment is not zero as it should be. The case of Buckley/APTA is a classic case of sovereign risk, if you are to believe Buckley, he tried to do everything right but was still destroyed. No honest investor worth the name will touch Australian GA with a ten foot pole - way too much CASA risk.
And by definition, you can be sure that anyone who does invest has an “angle” or “connections” because that is obviously the only way to insure against CASA regulatory risk. It appears THAT is what Buckley obviously failed to do. I do not believe any other explanation makes sense.
QANTAS, Virgin have too much political clout. The regional airlines are also politically well connected.
Ask yourself this: APTA was crucified. SOAR a dodgy corrupt, fraudulent, dangerously incompetent flight school that seriously injured some of its students was permitted by CASA to thrive. Why is that? Similarly, individuals and businesses seem to be closed or punished for no consistent reasons.
Perhaps all our breast beating about “the iron ring”, personalities, blighted careers, revenge, etc., etc., is actually wrong. Perhaps the simplest explanation is that the organisation is no different from the Queensland and NSW Police of yore? Brown paper bags? We generally don’t think that way in Australia. What if we should? What if CASA is just a nest of clever crooks?
In that case perhaps we should rename the DAS as “Godfather”? Sorry, “Godperson”.