[Peetwo]

Captain's Log 05.12.16: The Oz v ATSB - Contrail re-visit?

Courtesy 'that man' in the Oz this AM - :

MH370 aid offer renewed
12:00amEAN HIGGINS
A physicist has renewed a proposal to try to find where MH370 went down using archival satellite imagery.

Are we looking for MH370 in the wrong place?2:57

Pilot Byron Bailey explains the holes in the current theory as to the whereabouts of MH370

• December 2nd 2016
  
• 4 days ago
  
• /video/video.news.com.au/News/
  

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A Melbourne cloud physicist has renewed a proposal to Australian and Malaysian authorities to try to find where Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 went down using archival satellite imagery to track its contrails.

Aron Gingis, a scientist who held posts at Monash and the Hebrew University of Jerusalem before setting up a consultancy, said tracking aircraft movements by this method was more precise than the satellite electronic “handshake” data relied on by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.

The ATSB has based its search strategy on automatic hourly Inmarsat satellite exchanges with MH370 during its flight to the southern Indian Ocean on March 8, 2014, with 239 people on board.

The ATSB has claimed the Inmarsat data shows the Boeing 777 was in a rapid descent at the end of the flight, supporting its “ghost flight” or “death dive” ­theory that it flew on autopilot with “unresponsive” pilots until ­running out of fuel and crashing.

• More: Enigma of MH370: key theories
  

Some international air crash investigators doubt the data is good enough to be confident of that conclusion, while senior commercial pilots such as Australian aviator and commentator Byron Bailey believe Captain ­Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacked his own aircraft and flew it to the end, outside the current search area.

Mr Gingis noted that in a technical paper Inmarsat scientists “stressed that the sensitivity of the reconstructed flight path to frequency errors is such that there remains significant uncertainty in the final location”.

The $200 million underwater search directed by the ATSB over 120,000sq km is due end in weeks.

Mr Gingis said his consultancy, Australian Management Consolidated, had access to civilian and military archival satellite imagery and meteorological data that could enable it to determine where MH370 went down in one of two ways.

By examining satellite images from March 8, 2014, his experts could look for the condensation trails made by jet aircraft in some conditions, usually clear skies.

Alternatively, Mr Gingis said, when aircraft fly through clouds, they affect the physics of the clouds. Analysis of satellite meteorological data could also potentially track MH370’s route in such conditions.

He only asked that the ­Malaysian and Australian governments cover his firm’s costs.
The ATSB told The ­Australian it had dealt with Mr Gingis in 2014: “The ATSB subsequently sought details on the techniques proposed to be used, however Mr Gingis refused to provide information for consideration on the basis it would be detrimental to his commercial interests.

“Based on the information available, the ATSB and also Geoscience Australia considered his proposal did not warrant further investigation. The ATSB still holds this view.”

Err no comment... - "INCOMING!"

In addition from Marnie via news.com.au...

Could this technology find missing Malaysian Flight MH370?

October 17, 20146:04pm
By MARNIE O’NEILLnews.com.au

AN Australian scientist says it is possible to locate missing Malaysian Airlines flight MH370 by identifying cloud changes for evidence of vapour trails caused by burning fuel emissions from the aircraft.

Hydrometeorologist Aron Gingis, head of environmental consultancy firm Australian Management Consolidated, and a former Monash University academic, specialises in cloud microphysics.

Mr Gingis says he has used the technology to locate shipwrecks in the north Pacific Ocean by identifying “ship trails” and the changes in cloud microphysics caused by emissions of floating vessels using archival satellite data.



Mr Gingis said he was able to track ship trails in the North Pacific Ocean by identifying fuel vapour emissions present in the cloud seen on the left of this archival satellite image and can do the same with MH370.

The respected engineer, who has 27 years experience in the field, offered his services to the Malaysian, Chinese and Australian authorities just weeks after the Boeing 777 vanished, only to be rejected.

“I believe that we have a realistic chance to follow flight path of Malaysian Airline MH370 and follow its flight direction and possibly identifying its landing or crash site,” Mr Gingis wrote to the Malaysian High Commissioner Eldeen Husaini in an email dated April 3 — less than a month after the plane vanished.

“I would be required to fly to KL and to have a detailed briefing with Malaysian search and rescue authorities in order to be able to identify and search for specific satellite availability and all satellite data imagery frames that we can analyse using our cloud microphysics algorithms.

“The travelling to KL and back to Melbourne and 1 day briefing session will be sufficient to explain to your search and rescue authorities as of our ability to identify the flying trails of MH370.

“I believe that we will be able to utilise our expertise and identify the flight pass of MH370 and then to direct the search and rescue authorities to save or recover MH370 passengers.”


Environmental engineer Aron Gingis in Melbourne.Source:News Corp Australia

Mr Gingis said Mr Husaini emailed him on April 10 to say his proposal had been forwarded to the “Operation Room” in Malaysia, and on April 24, the High Commissioner sent him a “thanks but no thanks” response.

“We appreciate your kind offer to assist us in finding the MH370 as we are looking into all possibilities to facilitate the search,” Mr Husaini wrote.

“However, at the moment we have engaged with all international forum which consist of experts in their own respective field to search for the missing plane.”
On May 30, Mr Gingis sent his proposal to the Australian Transport and Safety Bureau (ATSB), which is coordinating the search for MH370 in the South Indian Ocean.

On June 17, ATSB senior transport safety investigator Duncan Bosworth responded with a list of 11 questions (seen by news.com.au) grilling Mr Gingis for information the scientist says he refused to answer without being under contract for fear of compromising commercial and security interests.

In a statement to news.com.au this week, the ATSB confirmed Mr Gingis’story. The bureau also confirmed it was in possession of the relevant archival satellite images but had not engaged anyone to examine the images for airline vapour trails left by MH370.


The Fugro Equator, the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) launched from the Australian-contracted survey ship M/V Fugro Discovery as part of a new high-resolution search for missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.Source:AFP

“The ATSB asked for details of the techniques that Mr Gingis proposed to use, however Mr Gingis refused to provide information for consideration as he believed it could be detrimental to his commercial interests,” the statement said.

“The ATSB has worked closely with Australian government agencies with expertise in the analysis of satellite imagery and has fed the results into its assessment of priority search areas.

“The ATSB remains confident in the analysis work undertaken by the international experts of the Satellite Working Group and the validity of the satellite communications data on which that group has relied.”

Mr Gingis said he offered to do a reconnaissance for $17,500 — a fraction of the estimated $100 million the Australian Government is spending on the exploration of at least 60,000 sq km of unchartered seabed, which has so far uncovered nothing and has been set down for a year.

That search has been heavily criticised for its reliance on analysis of satellite communication “handshakes” to pinpoint MH370’s flight path and estimated final resting place.


Emirates chief Tim Clark does not think much of the investigation into the disappearance of MH370Source:Contour by Getty Images

Last week the head of the world’s largest fleet of Boeing 777s, Emirates CEO and president Sir Tim Clark, rubbished the ATSB’s investigation and hinted at a cover-up by Malaysian authorities among others.

Sir Tim also said he did not believe MH370 flew south for five hours before running out of fuel and spiralling into the South Indian Ocean, as the ATSB concluded in a report published earlier this month.

Sarah Bajc, the outspoken partner of American Philip Wood, one of the 239 on board Flight MH370, told news.com.au she was “astounded” that Mr Gingis’ offer to do preliminary research for just $17,500 was rejected.

“What I do know is that credible scientists who end up being right are called quacks all the time,” she said. “There were dozens who proposed the earth was round for hundreds of years before society accepted it.

“There are many functioning technologies that are squashed by ‘big business’ that is protecting its revenue streams — I would include many governments and powerful individuals in that category too.”


Sarah Hamil Bajc with partner Philip Wood, who was on board missing Malaysian flight MH370.Source:Supplied

Ms Bajc, an American expat based in Kuala Lumpur, has been vocal in her criticism of the search and, like Australian Jennifer Chong, the wife of MH370 passenger Chong Ling Tan, believes that without proof to the contrary, those on board could still be alive and that authorities have covered up the true fate of the aircraft.

“I still disagree with SIO (South Indian Ocean search) because NONE of the other evidence supports it. No radar sightings, no debris. My personal belief is that there is either intentional or unintentional miscalculation, or there is falsified data.”

Ms Bajc is leading a group of relatives of MH370 passengers who have hired a private investigator to find out what happened to the aircraft.

“We are not just refusing to accept the truth,” Ms Bajc told news.com.au.

“I would be the first person to apologise publicly for being so stubborn and contrary if they do indeed find the plane in the South Indian Ocean.

“Our position does, however, explain a total lack of debris, the string of ‘blunders’ in the search, the seemingly intentional false leads of debris and underwater pings, the redacted data logs, the error/illogical ridden Inmarsat analysis, missing/altered air traffic control records, the large ‘gaps’ in contact with the plane, missing military radar, missing cargo manifest, and the astoundingly incompetent path of the entire investigation.”


Australian Jennifer Chong and her husband Chong Ling Tan, who was on board MH370Source:Supplied

MTF...P2