Less Noise and More Signal

Captain's Log 08.12.16: DOI - Madagascar search update

Via the Guardian today:
Quote:Malaysia's MH370 search under the spotlight after investigation delays

‘Remarkable coincidence’ that investigators have only now collected potential debris from Madagascar, say families who started own hunt for missing plane.        [Image: 2592.jpg?w=620&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&f...0c660bc3eb]
[/url] Jiang Hui Be of China, whose relatives were passengers on MH370, examines a piece of potential debris from the plane found at Sainte Marie island in Madagascar. Photograph: Reuters

Elle Hunt in Sydney and Aislinn Laing in Antananarivo

@mlle_elle

Thursday 8 December 2016 13.14 AEDT

Questions have been asked about Malaysia’s commitment to the search for missing flight MH370, after the country’s civil aviation head insisted that delays in collecting potential debris were justified, and Malaysia Airlines took steps to block a bid for compensation by families of those on board the plane.

Relatives of the passengers have remarked on the fact that the shift in Malaysia’s investigation has coincided with their trip to Madagascar to hunt for debris themselves.

Datuk Seri Azharuddin Abdul Rahman, the director-general of Malaysia’s department of civil aviation, has insisted it was a “coincidence” that its investigator arrived in Madagascar days after family members did.

Six possible pieces of the missing Malaysia Airlines flight had been languishing in storage in Madagascar since Blaine Gibson, the US independent investigator, handed them over to local authorities in June.

Though Malaysia was notified of their existence at the time, they were only collected on Tuesday.

Aslam Khan, one of the Malaysian MH370 investigators in Antananarivo, told the Guardian that criticism of the authorities for failing to collect the debris in the six months since it had been found was “fair comment”.

“But my answer is that we are here now to collect the debris which are with the Madagascan authorities for examination. Once we have had a physical examination of it we will be in a position to say more.”

Madagascan authorities have suggested the two countries work together to conduct a concerted search of its 3,700km (2,300 miles) of coastline and run a public information campaign to encourage locals to hand in any debris they find.

Khan said the investigation would go on “until such time as we find some answers”.

[Image: 2491.jpg?w=460&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&f...9cc0f181da]
MH370 search: families of passengers to comb Madagascar beaches for clues

Relatives have accused Malaysian authorities of not doing enough as parts believed to be from the missing jet are found on Madagascan coast

He added: “It’s been difficult because we haven’t found wreckage.”

It was too soon to say whether the debris washed up in Africa could provide clues as to what happened to the plane, Khan said: “We have got to examine it first. It’s not necessarily right to say it could represent credible new evidence. We need to examine it first to determine its value.”

Gibson and some family members of victims have criticised the apparent lack of urgency of the Malaysian investigation, and shared their concerns with Khan when they met with him late on Monday night.

K S Narendran, whose wife was a passenger onboard MH370, wrote on Facebook on Wednesday that it was a “remarkable coincidence” that Khan arrived in Madagascar at the same time as the families.

But Azharuddin, the director-general of Malaysia’s department of civil aviation, told the Malay Mail that there was no connection between the timing of the two.

“It’s not that we don’t want to take the debris. It’s far away, time-consuming and costly to do so. We also have to get visas done and engage with the authorities beforehand.”

On Wednesday, the families split into three teams to scour beaches for possible debris.

Jiang Hui, whose mother was onboard MH370, made the first find – potentially from the plane’s galley – on Riake beach on Isle Sainte Marie later that day.

Gibson and Khan joined him in inspecting it. Grace Nathan, a spokeswoman for the families’ initiative, said it was an “emotional moment for all of us”.

She said on Thursday the families would travel to the outer islands of Madagascar by boat to continue the search there.
[Image: 1803.jpg?w=460&q=55&auto=format&usm=12&f...2117511fc0]
The man on a solo mission to find the wreckage of flight MH370

Blaine Alan Gibson is a lawyer and amateur ‘adventurer’ who is on a self-funded quest to trace the Malaysia Airlines plane that vanished in 2014

In a separate development, relatives of Australian passengers Rod and Mary Burrows and Bob and Cathy Lawton, [url=http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/court-battle-malaysia-airlines-fights-to-prevent-release-of-mh370-documents/news-story/79d4cfabc4540210850db1b9b7152976]have suffered in a blow in their case for compensation from Malaysia Airlines.

The airline has applied to “strike out” an order to hand over internal documents to lawyers acting on behalf of the families on the grounds that they are “not relevant to any issues arising on the pleadings”.

It will reportedly fight the “notice to produce” in court in Sydney on Friday. The Guardian has contacted John Dawson of Carney Lawyers for comment.

Meanwhile, the underwater search for the missing plane, which is being carried out by Australian authorities, is now down to one vessel after a Chinese boat returned to Beijing.

The Dong Hai Jiu 101 concluded its underwater work on Saturday and made its way to Fremantle to drop off equipment before returning to China, leaving only the Dutch Fugro Equator search ship, which paused operations on Tuesday for a resupply.

The final stages of the 120,000 square kilometre search in the southern Indian Ocean is expected to take until January or February to complete.
MTF...P2 Cool
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The Malaysiams have been shonks in all of this from the get-go. Duck em. They are amatures, untrustworthy, and hellbent on saving dollars on insurance payouts rather than exposing the truth, or at least trying to.

As for the ATsB, well they haven't changed one iota from day one. Sticking to their bullshit search area as promulgated by Beaker and now Mr 'correct the record' Hood.

My disdain for those limp wristed, sports jacket wearing, mealy mouthed ICAO cardboard cutouts grows by the month. They could step in at any stage to correct all this shit. But no, the politically correct Anglo-American puppets dutifully sit back and follow every command from their Masters in Washington D.C.

It will take a Blaine Gibson or Byron Bailey type of sleuth to solve this if it is going to be solved. Or perhaps the respected Dick Smith may donate a couple of dollars from his Citation sale to Aron Gingis to investigate the vapour trails as per his theory?? I know Dick cannot fund every request asked of him, and he also has a reputation to protect as well, however if Mr Gingis could provide some evidence of how his research has absolutely worked in the past, you never know, an Australian loved and respected, kind hearted, generous, aviation promoting philanthropist just might be interested! Just sayin.......
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Captain's Log 10.12.16: The shame of MH370 PT1.

Via Chillit's 7th Arc blog Wink :

Quote:Using Satellites to Locate MH370

Posted on December 9, 2016 by Mike Chillit

This is so simple, some may hurt themselves with exuberant face palming. Resist for now.

For me, the revelation that this could be done came from one of my tweeps who posted an image of two white dots on a Reunion Island beach. I’ve tried to remember who that Tweep was, and so far haven’t succeeded. Fortunately, there is an audit trail in my own tweet history and I will find out who it was and thank HER (I believe a her) profusely.

That image was from St. Denis beach where the flaperon was found by Johnny Begue and formally reported to police on July 29, 2015. Mr. Begue fundamentally changed the search for MH370 that day. If we find it, it will be in no small part due to Mr. Begue and the subsequent harassment he took after hordes of journalists made a mess of that quiet picturesque community. Who can blame those who objected to being so rudely treated by the “media”?

When I saw the image, wheels began turning a little and I eventually asked myself if there was a way to figure out if one of those white dots was indeed the flaperon. It wasn’t an easy task. First of all, Mr. Begue speaks only French Creole. And he is not a social media aficionado as far as I know. How to contact him?

A break came when a man who followed me on twitter read some of the flaperon tweets and contacted me. His name is Michel Bourgeois, and he sent me a very simple message: “I know him”, referring to Johnny Begue. Mr. Bourgeois not only speaks perfect English to accommodate culturally challenged people like me, he offered to get in touch with Mr. Begue to ask specific questions on my behalf.

The information I needed from Mr. Begue was simple enough: Is either of the white objects shown in a Google Earth image of St. Denis beach the one he found on July 29, 2015. Mr. Bourgeois was unable to find out directly, so I enlisted the help of another Tweep by the name of Brigitte Lanteri, who speaks no English as I understand it, but who has Google Translate available to bridge some gaps.

Between the three of us misfits, we managed to ask Mr. Begue if he could explain exactly where he fished the flaperon out of the surf. He was more than happy to oblige and Mr. Bourgeois was innovative enough to put a GPS app on his cellphone and go to the very spot on St. Denis beach where the flaperon was found. It turned out that the flaperon was within perhaps 100 meters of where it appears on that Google Earth image taken July 23, 2015 by a brand new Digital Globe satellite, WorldView-3.

At least, at that point we believed we were making important headway. This was back in September or so. I had already done extensive work to determine that Reunion Island was almost certainly in the southern east-to-west path for aircraft debris when it crashed. I was not surprised by what we were now learning. But how to move the search forward?

I tend to be overly persistent when I encounter things I don’t understand, but want to understand. We are all like that. In time, I decided that if we could see the flaperon – or what appeared to be the flaperon – in the surf on Reunion Island, why couldn’t we use Google Earth’s Digital Globe images to explore other Islands? I was not interested in Madagascar where we already knew there was debris. I wasn’t interested primarily because even if we find debris on Madagascar, it doesn’t help us figure out where it drifted FROM. Madagascar is where all debris eventually goes to slowly dissolve under the hot sun. In terms of finding the crash site, it seemed to me more important to recreate the drift path. Which islands were catching debris? So I began using Google Earth for the first time ever as an exploration tool and I was shocked to discover what appeared to be aircraft debris on a tiny little island known as St. Brandon Island, or Cargados Carajos Shoals (Heavily Loaded Crow’s Nests).

And there was more than one piece of debris. But to figure out what I was looking at I had to find Leopold Romeijn (pronounced Romain). Dr. Romeijn is CEO of Satellite Imaging Corporation in Houston, TX. It was Dr. Romeijn’s subsequent work with images of the St. Brandon and Reunion debris that moved us forward rapidly. We now have 20 or more likely pieces of MH370 debris scattered around Rodrigues, St. Brandon, and tiny little Tromelin, which is west of St. Brandon, but not one of the Mascarene Islands.

As I’m writing this, we do not have final confirmation on how all of these pieces of the MH370 puzzle fit together, but this is what we think we know:

  1. The St. Brandon debris item has a spectral signature roughly equal to Boeing 747 wing composition signature. We did not have a 777-200ER sample, but 747 is close enough for now. We aren’t missing 747s in the Indian Ocean. So we’re good to go.
  2. Next, the speck we believe to be the flaperon on Reunion Island the following year has the spectral signature for carbon composite. That is as it should be.
  3. It appears that debris from MH370 was in the Mascarene Island area almost a year before the flaperon was found. In fact, we have NOAA satellite-tracked data to show a buoy that was where we believe MH370 came down was hit by Cyclone Gillian three weeks after the crash and ended up north of St. Brandon in July 2014. Bingo!
  4. But are we connecting all of the dots correctly? We think so, but further tests are being performed to help confirm what we think we know. Stay tuned.
In the days ahead, Dr. Romeijn and his staff will be working on pinning down the spectral signatures of the St. Brandon debris. There is additional debris on St. Brandon, and now on Reunion Island that we may now be able to certify as MH370 Debris. We may not be able to physically recover all of that debris, but it doesn’t matter. We don’t need it. What we need is to know where it came from. The “scatter pattern” for this debris will help us narrow down MH370’s final location. That is probably about 1,200 km west of Exmouth, AU, but we continue to work on that.

I should point out that most of this satellite imagery has been available since August 2014. No one checked it to find out if an underwater search was even necessary. And there is a lot of potential plane debris. In fact, the underwater portion of the search began in October 2014, three months or more AFTER debris from MH370 began hitting St. Brandon Island.

We live in a satellite age now. We can’t see those multi-ton image sensors, even by looking up, but we see the images they take every day on social media. For more than two years we have tried to find MH370 the same was ancient divers searched for sponges, lost treasure, and other gifts from the sea. Time to move on and embrace the satellite era, and people like Dr. Romeijn and his staff who have tools we could only dream of a few decades ago.

Now, here are some images of the various places we are looking, the debris we have, and one of the spectral analysis returns. More should be available within days.

[Image: A1.jpg]

St. Brandon Island; about 50 km long, and 1.3 square kilometer in area. Restricted access.

[Image: A2.jpg]

One of our Satellite Search and Spectral Analysis areas

[Image: A3.jpg]

St. Brandon (Wing) segment (Tests Continuing.

[Image: A4.jpg]

Very old St. Brandon wreck of some sort. Predates 2005 images.

[Image: A5.jpg]

Unconfirmed plane debris. Appears to be typical composite.

[Image: A6.png]

Second wing segment on St. Brandon. (Analysis continues)

[Image: A7.png]

Suspected wing segment

[Image: A10.jpg]

Spectral comparisons of Boeing 747s in Dubai to suspected wing segment on St. Brandon.

[Image: 11.jpg]
WorldView-3 image of St. Denis beach where flaperon is being tested for Carbon Composite construction
And in Madagascar the magnificent 7 continue to search for debris and campaign for local awareness to be on the lookout for possible items of MH370 debris:
For updates on the MH370 M7 efforts refer to voice370 on twitter or facebook... Wink


MTF...P2 Angel
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Captain's Log 11.12.16: MC Update - Wink

Quote:NOTE: There has been an important development since this was posted yesterday. We believe we have definitively identified the Reunion Island flaperon before it was pulled from the beach by Johnny Begue and turned over to local police on July 29, 2015. This latest step toward full confirmation follows Leo Romeijn’s determination that the object’s dimensions are precisely those known, documented, and reported by investigators at the time. We expect spectral analyses to further confirm the identity of the flaperon before it was pulled from the surf. The effort now will switch to a possible link between the flaperon and the “wing” segment observed on St. Brandon Island farther north. The original blog post resumes below the image.

[Image: 2016-12-10-025601.jpg]

WorldView-3 Image of MH370’s right flaperon taken July 23, 2015. Dimensions alone identify it as the right flaperon later recovered by Johnny Begue.
Cheers Chillit, packet of TimTams is in the mail (Ps make sure you share with Leo  ... Big Grin )


No doubt much, much MTF...P2 Tongue
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Captain's Log 13.12.16: DOI archive entry 161213.

First courtesy the AFP, via the South China Morning Post:
Quote:Scouring Madagascar beaches, desperate Chinese families search for MH370 clues and closure
PUBLISHED : Monday, 12 December, 2016, 12:24pm
UPDATED : Monday, 12 December, 2016, 9:17pm

[Image: d610bef2-c01e-11e6-85c8-a5c9105fe082_128...k=nSXY0S8F]
Blaine Gibson, an American lawyer turned self-funded sleuth (right) and relatives of Chinese passengers of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, look for debris from the lost plane on Sainte Marie island in Madagascar. Photo: Reuters

[Image: logo-groupe-afp-250.jpg?itok=eiaMP0o9]
Agence France-Presse
 
It was a heartfelt journey before Christmas, a search for clues about loved ones who disappeared in a still unsolved mystery. The mission was a long shot, at best.
But for several families seeking answers over the fate of relatives who perished aboard flight MH370 from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, any effort is better than none.

Frustrated by a lack of progress in official investigations into the disappearance of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777, the Chinese and other families spent the past week in Madagascar, combing beaches.

Fragments identified with “near certainty” as coming from the aircraft were discovered in recent months on the coast of East Africa, prompting the unorthodox search.

Jiang Hui, a 44-year-old from China who lost his mother on the flight, has not given up hope of finding out why 239 people disappeared without a trace.

[Image: d63c5eae-c01e-11e6-85c8-a5c9105fe082_660...k=rFsnjdMM]
Jiang Hui (left) and another relative of an MH370 passenger examine debris found on Sainte Marie island in Madagascar. Photo: Reuters

“When I first found debris on Wednesday, I was very excited... and very sad,” he said, after a day that was both physically and emotionally gruelling.

“Whenever we discover this kind of fragment, I think we are getting closer to the truth. This is what I want to hope for,” he said, under a boiling hot sun.

Neither the location nor the cause of the crash is known, feeding wild conspiracy theories. The families have covered parts of Madagascar on foot, by 4x4 vehicles and on quad bikes.

And they have been accompanied by Blaine Gibson, an American amateur investigator who has also been trying to find out what happened to flight MH370.

Over two days of searching, the team found debris on Nosy Boraha, an island off the eastern coast. After a discovery on the second day, a Malaysian woman who lost her husband onboard MH370, burst into tears.

But such finds harden Hui’s resolve.

[Image: d6626b80-c01e-11e6-85c8-a5c9105fe082_660...k=jyoWBdZ5]
Relatives of MH370 passengers arrive at Sainte Marie island in Madagascar. Photo: Reuters.

“I think our trip to Madagascar was justified,” he said before the group left Sunday, mindful that such discoveries are just the starting point in the quest for clues, as the fragments could easily have come from a boat, not a plane.

The finds bore no identifiable features and they will be passed to local authorities before being sent to Malaysia for analysis. The process can take months.

Whether in hope or out of actual belief, Hui tries to stay positive.

“I have done a lot of research on aeroplane debris to know what it looks like. I know very well what to look for,” he said.

Some of the families ventured to Madagascar out of a sense of desperation, exasperated at the lack of progress in the official searches and investigation.

It is believed MH370 crashed into the Indian Ocean, but an extensive deep-sea hunt off Australia’s west coast failed to find a single piece of debris.

As such, families took matters into their own hands.

“I would prefer that the authorities do this,” rather than rely “on tourists or fishermen to find debris by chance”, said Hui, adding that a coordinated effort would be “much better”.

In Madagascar, some officials from the Malaysian government travelled with the relatives of MH370 victims.

“The bigger the piece (of debris), the greater the chance we have of determining its origin,” explained Aslam Basha Khan of the Malaysian Ministry of Transport.

“But sometimes we are not able to make a direct link with the plane,” Khan said.

The families also used the trip to heighten awareness among the local population about the search.

In Nosy Boraha, a guide named Cyriak Rakotosoa, who found a piece of debris in October, has become an ally.

“I tell the fishermen that if they find something similar they should bring it to the hotel. But usually if they do, they use it to repair a roof.”

In a sign of the distress felt by the families, Li Er You, a Chinese man whose only son was on MH370, threw a bottle filled with money and a letter into the sea.

“We put all our heart into this bottle,” he said. “We hope someone will find it who knows where the plane fell. If someone finds this bottle, please contact me quickly.”
Next the latest from Chillit's Seventh Arc blog... Wink :
Quote:MH370 Debris Within 6 Months!
Posted on December 11, 2016 by Mike Chillit

If you’re following along on Twitter, you know by now imaging specialists at Satellite Imaging Corporation in Houston have confirmed that an object that appears to be about half of a 777’s left wing is indeed “aircraft debris”. The spectral signature is nearly identical to that for Boeing 747 wing surfaces. Since the metallic composition of 777 wings is a more recent aluminum alloy, we expected a close but not exact match.

Spectral results rule out “shiny” objects like fiberglass used in the construction of sailing and fishing vessels; they also rule out wood construction, any number of non-metallic materials used in the construction of boats and planes, and non-buoyant materials that could not have drifted to the island without aid of people. (St. Brandon Island is closed to tourist traffic. Getting on the island is difficult, expensive, and requires permits.)

Looking ahead, I do not personally have an interest in physically recovering the St. Brandon wing, others may feel differently. Others may want tangible confirmation that it is indeed part of MH370. I understand the interest, and fully support such efforts as long as done in accordance with the wishes and requirements of the government of Mauritius, which has administrative responsibility for the island.

However, for me, the focus remains on finding the rest of the aircraft. Today’s confirmation helps us enormously. It tells us MH370 debris was on St. Brandon sometime prior to September 9, 2014: six (6) months or less after the plane is believed to have crashed in the southeastern Indian Ocean. There are two immediate implications from that. First, the debris could not possibly have drifted from the original search area south of Broken Ridge, a belief now held by most of those who still follow efforts to find the Malaysian Airliner.

Second, it strongly suggests Cyclone Gillian was instrumental in putting MH370 debris where it was in September 2014. We know that because NOAA Satellite-tracked buoy #101655 suffered a similar fate. The buoy was on the “Seventh Arc” on March 8, 2014. Gillian hit it directly on March 25, catapulting it across the Indian Ocean to -10.023, 63.178, north of St. Brandon by July 26, 2014: a mere 4 months.

[Image: 2016-12-11-154638.jpg]
Cyclone Gillian’s role in moving MH370 debris from the crash site to the Mascarene Islands.

In fact, comparing the track of NOAA buoy #101655 to a hypothetical track from the same origin to St. Brandon during the same time frame is quite reasonable.

I will expand this article as time and events dictate. There is much more to be told, but I need to spend more time reviewing lab results provided by Satellite Imaging Corporation.


MTF...P2 Cool
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Captain's Log 19.12.16: HSSS archive entry 161219

(12-19-2016, 03:11 PM)Peetwo Wrote:  'Qui ose gagne'

IMHO for a lesson in humility grace & dignity, one can not go past Mike Chillit on this day 19 December 2016... Wink :
Quote:IG Comments on Possible MH370 Debris
Posted on December 18, 2016 by Mike Chillit

Nearly everyone who has followed MH370 efforts on Twitter and elsewhere has some knowledge of a group known collectively as “IG”. Some say it means “Independent Group”, Others say the “I” is for “IQ” or something and the “G” is for something else. Whatever it means, it is a social net gang best known for taking research and plots from others, and harassing those who disagree with its Kazakhstan and Penguinville tours de force; not to forget its enthusiastic support for helping spend $180 million Australian taxpayer dollars on an effort that hasn’t exactly been hugely successful.

Attached below is the latest example of IG’s efforts at teamwork. They didn’t send it to me, they had a newly minted Twitter troll follow me for a while and then send me a link. 

For the record, all of the research I conduct is my own and predates everything else I’ve seen. Contrary to Mr. Godfrey’s assertions, I have seldom accessed Duncan Steel’s website. It just isn’t a place I regard as particularly informative. The focus for those who hang out there tends to be aircraft systems esoterica.

Quote:[Image: 2016-12-18-150945.jpg]

Mike Chillit’s work on two NOAA drifters. Mr. Godfrey states that he published his work on October 18, 2016. This shows that a small part of Mike Chillit’s NOAA drifter work STARTED on September 9, 2016. It was published on Twitter almost immediately, and continued to be a work in progress that began in February 2016 when I wrote to CSIRO’s David Griffin to tell him his drift models had serious problems. It is my understanding that all of Mr. Godfrey’s work is published in obscure places, like Duncan Steel’s website. In contrast, mine is published on Twitter where everyone and anyone can view it, copy it, claim it is their own work. Some of my biggest fans hang out on Jeff Wise’s blog. That’s our world in today’s social media.

As of Sunday, December 18, updated images from WorldView-3 confirm that the objects I thought could be aircraft debris are more likely wrecked boats. However, my version of Google Earth, even today, does not show any of the photos shown in Godfrey’s treatise. Not sure why.

It was only when we got a spectral signature from the boat on the left that nearly matches the signature of a Boeing 747 that I decided to personally pay for updated images. Experts told me it almost had to be aircraft debris. Little did I know that all I had to do was ask Mr. Godfrey.

So the bad news today is that there does not appear to be MH370 debris on St. Brandon Island. But the good news is that I spent my own money to get that education, and it didn’t take three years to accomplish it.
The IG 
  
You win some, you lose some but if you don't dare to win well...?? Rolleyes

OK MC tick that box mate and let's move on you've got a plane to find... Wink

Ps P2 OBS - 'Once a troll always a troll.' 

P7:
Quote:P2 – “IMHO for a lesson in humility grace & dignity, one can not go past Mike Chillit on this day 19 December 2016... :”

Well said P2, 100% support the motion. Two things come out of this, well three, if you want to count the academic bitch slapping, hair pulling and name calling; which IMO is not worth the wind.

1) Chillit has provided a ‘positive’ result – at least we can rule out one potential, legitimate line of inquiry. It is the curse of the investigator; to run down leads and come up with nothing. Except it eliminates a possibility; which is good, as it reduces the list of possible, make the list shorter and therefore one step closer to an answer. Instead of bagging MC, he should have our thanks for effort.

2) The whole process he has conducted should be set as the bench mark for all MH 370 investigators, systematic, careful, cross checked. Not like some who go off half cocked; spout off in the media, take money for it, then write silly books to flog off to the unwashed masses and have their ego stoked by 15 grubby, tawdry minutes of ‘fame’. There are enough of them.

No Chillit backed his own selection, with his own money for all the right reasons; it ran last, so what, The question is did he have fun? Bet he had some Malaysian hearts beating faster.

Bravo Mike, nothing ventured, nothing gained. Take a breather, get back to ‘Go’ and roll the dice.

Quote:MH370 & the Beaker effect - Dodgy  

From her Flying Lessons blog, Christine Negroni reminds us Aussies of why it was such a shameful decision to place the ATSB, headed up by the former top-cover expert Beaker, in charge of the MH370 SIO deep ocean search Blush
Quote:Time To Stop Obsessing About MH370’s Black Boxes
By Christine Negroni on November 28, 2016 at 7:01 AM

After 31 months of uncertainty and more than $120 million dollars spent in the search for the wreckage of Malaysia 370, it is long past time for investigators to broaden the focus of their search. Since March 8, 2014 when the plane made an inexplicable change of course and flew into the Indian Ocean with 239 people on board, air safety investigators have pinned their hopes on finding the cockpit voice and flight data recorders. The Malaysians have gone so far as to say that without the boxes, they will never know what happened to the jetliner. This has become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

What’s notable, however, is that the most promising information has come not from the sea but from good old fashioned detective work.

It was the enterprising engineers at the satellite data company Inmarsat who examined signals transmitted from the airplane and realized it had not crashed immediately after disappearing from radar. Most recently, those satellite signals helped them determine that at the end of the flight, the airplane was in such a high-speed descent it could have broken apart in the air, raining down into the sea in pieces.

Another significant clue came from a piece of the airplane’s right wing called a flaperon that washed up on a beach. Damage to this part appears to rule out the popular theory the Malaysian pilots tried to make a controlled landing in the sea in an act of murder/suicide or terrorism.

These shards of significant information show that fixating on the black boxes can distract investigators from obvious clues.

Here’s an example. In July 15, 2015, I contacted Martin Dolan, the then chairman of the Australian Transport Safety Bureau asking why, in light of all the money being spent in the sea, the ATSB had not also tried an aerial search of the shoreline where debris might be expected to wash up. Mr. Dolan replied that local authorities were responsible for that.

Relying on the attentiveness and current affairs awareness of residents in some of the world’s most remote communities, seemed a lethargic approach but more puzzling was Mr. Dolan’s statement that debris would offer little of value.

Two weeks after our email correspondence, though, the flaperon which revealed so much was found by a beachcomber. Who knows how long it had been there waiting discovery.

The official probe favors Rube Goldberg-like solutions over basic Sherlock Holmes. From my home office, I spent two years working a theory about what might have happened to MH-370 which I write about in my book, The Crash Detectives.

Using known and inferred details and previous similar events, I conclude that the Boeing 777 lost pressurization while at cruise altitude and that the crew emergency masks did not provide the pilots with sufficient oxygen under pressure affecting their ability to think properly. They steered the plane back towards Malaysia until they passed out. Then the airplane flew on auto pilot until running out of fuel.

This theory is based on the repair records of the airplane and known maintenance issues with the crew oxygen system and prior events.

On a 737 flight from Cyprus to Athens in 2005, the pilots did not respond correctly to an unpressurized cabin. With the pilots unconscious, the plane flew until it ran out of fuel. On a flight from Chicago to Florida in 1999, two of three pilots and a flight attendant fell unconscious after mishandling a pressurization problem. The sole pilot wearing an oxygen mask made an emergency landing, saving the flight from catastrophe.

Pressurization problems on smaller airplanes killed American golfer Payne Stewart in in 1999, the pilots of a German charter jet in 1983 and private pilot Laurence Glazer and his wife on a flight from Rochester to Florida in 2015.

Whether the scenario I describe is exactly what happened isn’t the point. Air safety investigations are preventative. They have value even when they can go no farther than identifying possibilities. This was the case in the fifties when three of the world’s first jetliner, the de Havilland Comet came apart in flight. Before discovering the cause – flaws in the plane’s structural design – more than eighty fixes were applied to the airplane because they might have contributed.

Nothing similar has happened in MH370, because the Malaysians have essentially thrown up their hands and the Australians are wedded to the high-priced sea search over all else, including examining clues in their own files.

Around the time that things started to go wrong on MH-370, there was a loss of satellite communication that lasted for an hour or more. The most likely cause is a total loss of power on the airplane, but why?

In my research, I came across a Qantas Boeing 747 that lost power on a flight to Bangkok in 2008, a scary episode that ended well. The problem was attributed to water leaking from the galley into the plane’s electronics bay directly below. It had happened on at least five other airplanes.

[Image: Malaysia-370-airplane-9M-MRO-1-1024x731.jpg]

The galley on Malaysia 370 is also located above the electronics bay so its curious that
the Australians did not compare the Qantas flight to the puzzling loss of power on MH370.

People often ask me if Malaysia 370 will ever be found and I remind them, twenty pieces of the plane have already washed ashore. The question isn’t whether the plane will be found but rather when investigators will stop being so distracted by the black boxes they cannot find and start examining the clues they have.
MTF...P2 Cool
Reply

ET theory back in vogue - Rolleyes

While the latest in the tiresome MH370 HSSS (he said, she said), bitch slapping and name calling bollocks continued today on social media, Kharon's preferred theory on ET was refreshed courtesy of Julie on this retweet with link.. Wink :
Quote:Retweeted The Telegraph

Funny timing, this one coming up again. Hackers could take control of a plane using in-flight entertainment system

Quote:[Image: plane-large_trans_NvBQzQNjv4Bql_-dn_bkBo...Iwsl_o.jpg]
Hackers could remotely access a plane's controls and passenger information, research reveals Credit: EPA  
20 December 2016 • 9:49am

A flaw in an in-flight entertainment system used by major airlines including Emirates, Virgin and Qatar could let hackers access a planes' controls.
The security hole in the Panasonic Avionics in-flight system is used in planes run by 13 major airlines and could put passengers' information and safety at risk, as well as disrupting their flight experience, according to researchers at IOActive.
Exploiting the problem, researcher Ruben Santamarta managed to "hijack" in-flight displays to change information such as altitude and location, control the cabin lighting and hack into the announcements system. 

"Chained together this could be an unsettling experience for passengers," said Santamarta, principal security consultant at IOActive who was behind the discovery. 

Santamarta was also able, in some instances, to use the flaw to access credit card details of frequent fliers stored in the automatic payment system. And he said it was possible the vulnerability could be used to access the aircraft's controls. 
He said such attacks is "totally feasible" from a technical perspective.

"I don't believe these systems can resist solid attacks from skilled malicious actors," he said. "This only depends on the attacker's determination and intentions, from a technical perspective it's totally feasible." 

The extent of the damage the hack could inflict on a plane depends on how successfully the airline has isolated its systems. For example, the passenger entertainment shouldn't be connected to the passenger owned devices or aircraft control. But sometimes it is.

As a result, Santamarta warned that airlines should be "incredibly vigilant" with in-flight systems and make sure they are properly segregated from the aircraft's controls. 

Panasonic has known about the vulnerabilities since March 2015, when the researchers first alerted it. It is not clear what action the company has taken. 

IOActive's ethical hackers gained notoriety last year when they took control of a Jeep Cherokee from 10 miles away and cut its engine while driving on the motorway, making it veer off the road.

They did this by hacking into the Jeep's on-board systems, which gave them access to the car's steering, brakes and transmission. The flaw also affected more than 470,000 cars made by Fiat Chrysler.

In 2014, when he began hacking planes out of a fear of flying, Santamarta discovered hundreds of software updates for multiple major airlines publically available online that he has exploited in his research. 

Using this he discovered another way to hack planes through their satellite communications systems. At the time, he demonstrated how a plane's Wi-Fi or entertainment system could be used to tamper with satellite communications, or interfere with navigation and safety controls.

"I've been afraid of flying for as long as I can remember," he said. "It might sound like a sick cure but, as a hacker, learning everything I could about how planes work, from the aerodynamics to electronics, has reduced the fear significantly." 

In 2015, a prominent hacker managed to make an airliner “climb” and move “sideways” after infiltrating its in-flight entertainment system.

Chris Roberts, founder of the cybersecurity firm One World Labs, was escorted from a United Airlines flight after sending in-air tweets bragging that he could deploy the oxygen masks.
 
MTF...P2 Tongue
Reply

Bishop weighs in on MH370/MH17 NOK compensation - Dodgy

Via the Oz today:
Quote:
Quote:Malaysia urged to pay compo
[Image: 5be487b27cec97c44fa04a8a9d7b01c8]12:00amSAM BUCKINGHAM-JONES
Julie Bishop has called on Malaysia to compensate the families of victims of flights MH370 and MH17.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop has called on Malaysia to compensate the families of victims of doomed flights MH370 and MH17 in a “timely manner” after concerns were raised that the airline had restructured its business to delay legal proceedings.

Almost three years after the crashes, lump-sum payments of about $50,000 have been made to the ­relatives of Australian victims of Mal­aysia Airlines flight MH370, which is believed to have crashed into the Indian Ocean, and MH17, shot down by a Russian-made missile.

There are more than a dozen legal battles under way in various Australian federal and supreme courts.

Under the Montreal Convention, an agreement in 1999 to fast-track compensation to the families of air disaster victims, relatives of those who died are ­entitled to about $200,000 — more, if the airline is shown to have been negligent.

Ms Bishop told The Australian Malaysia should move to fulfil its duties under international law quickly. “The government is aware that a number of families of Australian victims are seeking compensation from Malaysian Airlines,” she said.

“We welcome previous undertakings by Malaysian Airlines that it will compensate the families of all victims and would urge Malaysian Airlines to meet its obligations under the Montreal Convention in a timely manner.”

In late 2014, the company was renamed and received nearly $2 billion in state aid after a dedicated act of Malaysia’s parliament, known as Act 765, established ­Malaysia Airlines Berhad in the place of Malaysia Airline System Berhad.

Documents filed this year in a US court on behalf of dozens of victims of MH370 against the airline and its insurer, Allianz, accused Malaysia Airlines of ­attempting to “dodge” its legal ­obligations to those who died and their relatives.

“This sleight of hand by the Malaysian government after hundreds of people on two Malaysian flights are killed in as many months, was clearly a blatant, illegal dodge of its responsibility to the dead, missing, grieving and bereaved,” Mary Schiavo, who represents 98 victims and their relatives, wrote in a submission to the District of Columbia’s District Court.

A spokeswoman for Malaysia Airlines Systems (Administrator Appointed) denied the change from Malaysia Airlines System, or MAS, to Malaysia Airlines Berhad, or MAB, would delay payments to relatives.

“MAS has been committed to ensure all next of kin are fully compensated and to date it has not evaded its obligations to pay compensation in accordance with the principles set out under the applicable international conventions and local laws,” she said.

“The objective of the restructuring has never been to frustrate the legal process or avoiding its ­responsibilities, as it has been in­accurately portrayed.”

The search for the wreckage of MH370 is in its final stages, after an Australian Transport Safety Bureau review found the plane would never have been in the 120,000sq km area authorities have spent $200 million searching in the past two years.

Gee that last line gives you an insight to where the Murdoch press stand on the ATSB led SIO search, guess there is still no love lost there... Confused


MTF...P2 Cool
Reply

Big words from the pint size postulator.

What a load of bollocks the muppet Bishop speaks. As if she could really give a rats ass. Why the sudden concern? Why the public outcry? Why isn't this little toad equally concerned about our own, people such as Karen Casey?

Earth to Julie - MAS and their Government are shonks. They've been shonks with MH17 and they've been shonks with MH370. In fact Malaysia have been shonky since the Wright Brothers first flew, yet it has never concerned our limp wristed Governments before. The same Governments who have always tread lightly around the Malaysians.

I suspect that the Goldman Sachs Turdball Government is throwing around a herring. Why would they do that? Obviously MH370 related rather than MH17 related. Perhaps some lawyers are breathing down Julie's blouse? Maybe this is a herring to detract from Australia readying itself to pull the pin on the MH370 search? I'm not sure of the answer yet, but time will tell. Indeed, the ticking clock always tells.....

TICK TOCK
Reply

Captain's Log 02.01.17: DOI archive entry 170102

Today from Chillit's 7th Arc.. Confused : When Governments Usurp

Quote:...There is a bit of research going around now that both pleases and irritates me. It pleases me because it appears to support two years of my own work on MH370’s final resting place. It irritates me because I spent a lot of time educating one of those who claims to be an author of the study (David Griffin) and he doesn’t credit me as the source for his new knowledge. Yet that individual was part of an extensive conversation between a NOAA colleague (Rick Lumpkin) with connections to all of the study’s authors. How did two national oceanographic bureaucracies learn the plane was likely to be in the Zenith Plateau area? They learned from Moi, and it will emerge (below) that Zenith Plateau was the farthest thing from their minds when I first approached them in February 2016.

My central concern is very simple and narrow: there is no attribution for two years of my own work that led these researchers to conclude MH370 is most likely in the Zenith Plateau area; not south of Broken Ridge where the original search is now wrapping up without so much as a moist towelette to show for three years and A$180 million. It is a small thing in the grand scheme of things. It isn’t something anyone could put in a bank. It may not even be something someone would add to a resume. But it is the fundamental way professional people and organizations do things...

...Posted by David Griffin on December 20, 2016, he is obviously not an author of a NOAA study published in The Guardian on December 14, 2016 that claims the plane came down near Zenith Plateau. Has Australia sunk to this level? Really? Notice the pronouns used in Dr. Griffin’s article, highlighted in yellow.

Griffin’s reference to “life-size, GPS-equipped replicas of the flaperon and two other found parts of the aircraft alongside oceanographic drifters” is a set of five faux flaperons.

[Image: 2d2c77c2bf.jpg]
ATSB’s Peter Foley and five faux flaperons built for the purpose of modeling drift rates and locations from the original (now to be abandoned) search area. This is laughably preposterous and has no know scientific merit. It effectively discredits the entire Australia-led effort to find MH370.

This ‘stunt’ may be the REAL reason David Griffin wants to claim he has had a change of heart and thinks the plane may have come down near Zenith Plateau. But if it is, he should have backdated his website so it isn’t so obvious nearly everything he has touched so far has been tainted in one way or another.

OK. Well, is it possible Rick Lumpkin was not the NOAA researcher who put Joaquin A. Trinanes onto the need for a proper drift study? No. Not likely at all. Lumpkin and Trinanes have worked together a long time. For example, they were co-investigators in 2004 for NOAA in an Eastern Caribbean study in which Lumpkin was a more senior researcher. And of course it is obvious that Griffin had inside knowledge gained from me personally and from Rick Lumpkin.

Conclusion:
This is a shameful example of how government researchers behave sometimes if they think they can get away with it. I have been pushing Australia and others to be more open to outsiders like myself for a long time. I’ve pushed a lot of buttons Down Under. We do that as fallible humans when we become frustrated with monolithic agencies that bully their way around for no good purpose. And I have had lots of company. Almost no one believes Australia has seriously tried to find that plane. And Australia is about to prove that by walking away from it entirely.

I suspect the Australian government in Canberra would like to have its thoroughly bungled search effort vaporized somehow. But sometimes you have to suck it up and do the right thing. Or let the next US administration do it with even more undesireable consequences quite possible.

It isn’t just Griffin’s claim he somehow experienced an epiphany that inspired him to think beyond the original search area. A lot of us around the world have contributed to the total effort to find MH370. Blaine Gibson, Geomar, Jonathon Durgadoo, and even Jeff Wise with his wholly improbable Kazakhstan scenario, forced at least a few people to begin thinking larger. Any properly documented effort to go beyond where we now are needs to include all of these efforts to show the stair-step progression it is. Not, as NOAA and Griffin have done: pretend they have worked in a vacuum.

Just too bad if someone in Canberra has had his feelings hurt. The secrecy and political interference have been horribly damaging. Face it. Try to learn. Stop hiding what has happened.

This entry was posted in 7th Arc by Mike Chillit. Bookmark the permalink.

Although lengthy the Chillit piece is very much worth a full read as it comprehensively documents more than 2 years of MC's dedication to the MH370 cause... Wink

Also somewhat delayed but very much for the DOI Archive the following courtesy IBT:
Quote:MH370: South African all-rounder Albie Morkel finds possible piece of debris while holidaying at Mossel Bay

Morkel said he would hand over the aircraft fragment to the South African Civil Aviation Authority.

By Ananya Roy
December 30, 2016 10:26 GMT

South African cricketer Albie Morkel recently found a large piece of metal resembling an aircraft fragment while holidaying at Mossel Bay, South Africa. His Facebook post announcing the new find led to speculations that the piece could be from the doomed Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 which disappeared more than two years ago with 239 people on board.

Morkel reportedly found the piece of debris a week ago while playing cricket on the Mossel Bay beach. He will hand it over to the South African Civil Aviation Authority (Sacaa) once he is back from his vacation.

In his Facebook post dated 23 December, the Protea all-rounder posted images of the piece, seeking suggestions who to contact with regard to the find. Several people responded to the post and suggested he contact the national civil aviation body or the Australian authorities currently involved in the searchfor the missing Boeing 777.

In an interview to TMG Digital, Morkel said on Thursday (29 December): "I've been in touch with the ATSB (Australian Transport Safety Bureau) and authorities in Malaysia and will hand it over to Sacaa once I'm back from vacation so that they can do further investigations."

He also said that he found the debris on 22 December "while playing cricket with my son on the beach in front of the house we were renting in Mossel Bay", Herald Live reported.

[Image: kuala-lumpur-malaysia.jpg?w=400]South African cricketer Albie Morkel has found a piece of possible aircraft debris while holidaying in Mossel Bay, South Africa, which many believe could be part of a wing flap of the doomed Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 - File photoReuters

He added: "It looked to me as if it belonged to an airplane' so I took it home and posted the photo on Facebook." Morkel also said that some Facebook users who responded to his post believed the piece could be a wing fragment.

The all-rounder, who played his last test in 2015 and one-day international in 2012, is among the many people who have discovered pieces of debris along different beaches in and around South Africa. Some have already been confirmed by ATSB to have come from MH370 like a wing flap found off Tanzania coast in June.

[Image: albie-morkel.jpg?w=368]
South African all-rounder Albie MorkelReuters

One facebook user responded to Morkel's post saying this new piece could be a part of the wing flap found in Tanzania.

This new find comes at a time when the official search for the missing plane in southern Indian Ocean is drawing to a close, with no hopes of any extension.

Australia, Malaysia and China - all the parties involved in the search - have already decided not to extend the search beyond the designated 120,000sqkm seafloor unless concrete proof of a new location is found.

Morkel's find has raised hopes that it could provide an answer to one of the biggest mysteries the aviation world has seen in the recent past.
 
MTF...P2 Tongue
Reply

Chasing the dragons tale.

Mike Chillit has, IMO many admirable qualities; in particular, the quality of being more than happy to be proven wrong. Indeed there are many examples where he modestly doubted his own research or questioned his conclusions. A complete lack of ‘intellectual arrogance’ led to consultation with experts in a doomed attempt to determine the veracity of his conclusions. Bravo that man; well done.

Enter the dragon. When young children encounter ‘the dragon’ for the very first time; swift, positive, parental action is required. When an event occurs; or, a situation arises which creates fear, anger, confusion, trauma or any excess of reaction; it is always wise and psychologically sound to address the cause, explain why, in a way the child will understand, that while it may be OK to gently torment Grand mamma’s old cat; it is not such a good idea to pull the tail of a tiger. The reason is to prepare the child for the next encounter with something which frightens or angers; without this early care being given the child is unable, in later life, to recognise and deal effectively with ‘scary’ things. This is applicable to all first encounters with a ‘scary’ thing outside of the experience level. What am I banging on about? Well      

Mike’s first encounter with the Australian system reminds me of the situation I’ve clumsily described above. From an unprepared person, on first encounter with ‘the beast’; the response is always the same. Self doubt is always first: “I can’t be right, must have misunderstood”. Disbelief a close second: “Nah, must be dealing with an aberration; try again”. Once doubt and disbelief are put aside, the truth dawns; cold and ugly. I have noted three main categories of response from this point. Far and away the most common is “I give up – it’s hopeless” no point in trying to kick down a tall building with your bare feet. For the ‘Australian’ system, this is a win, the protester shrugs, toddles off to the pub to lick the wounds. Second; there is the determination to ‘get organised’ join an association, get involved and try to change things through reason and discussion. This approach, whilst satisfying, is great winner for the ‘Australian’ system; the association is given some crumbs from the table with the provision that they go outside and play nice in the garden while the grown ups have tea. Divide and conquer, an art form, down under.

Chillit falls neatly into the third main group; careful examination of the undeniable facts takes him to the inevitable conclusion; something is rotten in the state Denmark. To best overcome his outrage and anger, he must, in primus, understand the system which created it. I would humbly suggest that he and any others insulted, confused and made angry by the ‘Australian’ system take the trouble and make time to study, in its entirety, the Pel-Air saga as a primer. Google will get you started.

Understanding the beast does not mean that one can change its inherent nature; but by completely understanding it, a way to manage and control may be found; even if outside assistance is required. Welcome to the club Mike; like it or not you have reached the PNR.

Here endeth the ramble; with my sincere apologies to professional ‘shrinks’ appended. But someone had to address Mike’s sane, balanced, righteous indignation produced by his first encounter with ‘the dragon’.

Right; now then, where did I leave my knitting?

Toot toot.
Reply

Captain's Log 05.01.17: DOI Archive entry 170105


(01-02-2017, 07:22 PM)Peetwo Wrote:  Today from Chillit's 7th Arc.. Confused : When Governments Usurp

Quote:...There is a bit of research going around now that both pleases and irritates me. It pleases me because it appears to support two years of my own work on MH370’s final resting place. It irritates me because I spent a lot of time educating one of those who claims to be an author of the study (David Griffin) and he doesn’t credit me as the source for his new knowledge. Yet that individual was part of an extensive conversation between a NOAA colleague (Rick Lumpkin) with connections to all of the study’s authors. How did two national oceanographic bureaucracies learn the plane was likely to be in the Zenith Plateau area? They learned from Moi, and it will emerge (below) that Zenith Plateau was the farthest thing from their minds when I first approached them in February 2016.

My central concern is very simple and narrow: there is no attribution for two years of my own work that led these researchers to conclude MH370 is most likely in the Zenith Plateau area; not south of Broken Ridge where the original search is now wrapping up without so much as a moist towelette to show for three years and A$180 million. It is a small thing in the grand scheme of things. It isn’t something anyone could put in a bank. It may not even be something someone would add to a resume. But it is the fundamental way professional people and organizations do things...

...Posted by David Griffin on December 20, 2016, he is obviously not an author of a NOAA study published in The Guardian on December 14, 2016 that claims the plane came down near Zenith Plateau. Has Australia sunk to this level? Really? Notice the pronouns used in Dr. Griffin’s article, highlighted in yellow.

Griffin’s reference to “life-size, GPS-equipped replicas of the flaperon and two other found parts of the aircraft alongside oceanographic drifters” is a set of five faux flaperons.

[Image: 2d2c77c2bf.jpg]
ATSB’s Peter Foley and five faux flaperons built for the purpose of modeling drift rates and locations from the original (now to be abandoned) search area. This is laughably preposterous and has no know scientific merit. It effectively discredits the entire Australia-led effort to find MH370.

This ‘stunt’ may be the REAL reason David Griffin wants to claim he has had a change of heart and thinks the plane may have come down near Zenith Plateau. But if it is, he should have backdated his website so it isn’t so obvious nearly everything he has touched so far has been tainted in one way or another.

OK. Well, is it possible Rick Lumpkin was not the NOAA researcher who put Joaquin A. Trinanes onto the need for a proper drift study? No. Not likely at all. Lumpkin and Trinanes have worked together a long time. For example, they were co-investigators in 2004 for NOAA in an Eastern Caribbean study in which Lumpkin was a more senior researcher. And of course it is obvious that Griffin had inside knowledge gained from me personally and from Rick Lumpkin.

Conclusion:
This is a shameful example of how government researchers behave sometimes if they think they can get away with it. I have been pushing Australia and others to be more open to outsiders like myself for a long time. I’ve pushed a lot of buttons Down Under. We do that as fallible humans when we become frustrated with monolithic agencies that bully their way around for no good purpose. And I have had lots of company. Almost no one believes Australia has seriously tried to find that plane. And Australia is about to prove that by walking away from it entirely.

I suspect the Australian government in Canberra would like to have its thoroughly bungled search effort vaporized somehow. But sometimes you have to suck it up and do the right thing. Or let the next US administration do it with even more undesireable consequences quite possible.

It isn’t just Griffin’s claim he somehow experienced an epiphany that inspired him to think beyond the original search area. A lot of us around the world have contributed to the total effort to find MH370. Blaine Gibson, Geomar, Jonathon Durgadoo, and even Jeff Wise with his wholly improbable Kazakhstan scenario, forced at least a few people to begin thinking larger. Any properly documented effort to go beyond where we now are needs to include all of these efforts to show the stair-step progression it is. Not, as NOAA and Griffin have done: pretend they have worked in a vacuum.

Just too bad if someone in Canberra has had his feelings hurt. The secrecy and political interference have been horribly damaging. Face it. Try to learn. Stop hiding what has happened.

This entry was posted in 7th Arc by Mike Chillit. Bookmark the permalink.

MC Update 7th Arc blog... Wink:


Quote:Dear Doctor Trinanes

Err..take two - Blush

Quote:Dear Doctor Trinanes
Posted on January 4, 2017 by Mike Chillit
 
Dear Reader:
The following letter to Dr. Joaquin Trinanes had a wordo in the original email. In the 7th line from the top “I read with interest…” where the 7th line begins “estimate for longitude”. It is now correct, but originally read “latitude”. No other changes have been made. MC
 
[Image: 2017-01-04-160832.jpg]
[Image: 2017-01-04-160916.jpg]
 



MTF...P2 Tongue
Reply

Update to Captain's Log 05.01.17: On acknowledgements - Rolleyes


(01-05-2017, 07:47 AM)Peetwo Wrote:  
(01-02-2017, 07:22 PM)Peetwo Wrote:  Today from Chillit's 7th Arc.. Confused : When Governments Usurp

Quote:[Image: 2d2c77c2bf.jpg]
ATSB’s Peter Foley and five faux flaperons built for the purpose of modeling drift rates and locations from the original (now to be abandoned) search area. This is laughably preposterous and has no know scientific merit. It effectively discredits the entire Australia-led effort to find MH370.

...This ‘stunt’ may be the REAL reason David Griffin wants to claim he has had a change of heart and thinks the plane may have come down near Zenith Plateau. But if it is, he should have backdated his website so it isn’t so obvious nearly everything he has touched so far has been tainted in one way or another.

OK. Well, is it possible Rick Lumpkin was not the NOAA researcher who put Joaquin A. Trinanes onto the need for a proper drift study? No. Not likely at all. Lumpkin and Trinanes have worked together a long time. For example, they were co-investigators in 2004 for NOAA in an Eastern Caribbean study in which Lumpkin was a more senior researcher. And of course it is obvious that Griffin had inside knowledge gained from me personally and from Rick Lumpkin.

Conclusion:
This is a shameful example of how government researchers behave sometimes if they think they can get away with it. I have been pushing Australia and others to be more open to outsiders like myself for a long time. I’ve pushed a lot of buttons Down Under. We do that as fallible humans when we become frustrated with monolithic agencies that bully their way around for no good purpose. And I have had lots of company. Almost no one believes Australia has seriously tried to find that plane. And Australia is about to prove that by walking away from it entirely.

I suspect the Australian government in Canberra would like to have its thoroughly bungled search effort vaporized somehow. But sometimes you have to suck it up and do the right thing. Or let the next US administration do it with even more undesireable consequences quite possible.

It isn’t just Griffin’s claim he somehow experienced an epiphany that inspired him to think beyond the original search area. A lot of us around the world have contributed to the total effort to find MH370. Blaine Gibson, Geomar, Jonathon Durgadoo, and even Jeff Wise with his wholly improbable Kazakhstan scenario, forced at least a few people to begin thinking larger. Any properly documented effort to go beyond where we now are needs to include all of these efforts to show the stair-step progression it is. Not, as NOAA and Griffin have done: pretend they have worked in a vacuum.

Just too bad if someone in Canberra has had his feelings hurt. The secrecy and political interference have been horribly damaging. Face it. Try to learn. Stop hiding what has happened.

MC Update 7th Arc blog... Wink:


Quote:Dear Doctor Trinanes

Err..take two - Blush

Quote:Dear Doctor Trinanes
Posted on January 4, 2017 by Mike Chillit
 
Dear Reader:
The following letter to Dr. Joaquin Trinanes had a wordo in the original email. In the 7th line from the top “I read with interest…” where the 7th line begins “estimate for longitude”. It is now correct, but originally read “latitude”. No other changes have been made. MC
 
[Image: 2017-01-04-160832.jpg]
[Image: 2017-01-04-160916.jpg]
 


While on acknowledgements or lack of, the following is quoted from post #209 of this thread back in May of last year (Note: The reference to 'David' is David Griffin):
(04-05-2016, 12:50 PM)Peetwo Wrote:  An update to my DOI chain of posts - It would seem that the debris will continue to keep appearing in and around the East coast of Africa & Madagascar. However as the number of possible pieces of MH370 (including what appears to be an internal piece - see HERE) keeps on adding up, the ATSB & Minister Chester still won't concede that there is an ever decreasing probability that they are searching the wrong part of the 7th Arc or maybe even the wrong sector of the IO.

I guess from the point of view of the Australian government this is somewhat understandable, for to concede they may have got it even slightly wrong would lead to further scrutiny & criticism. Which could then lead to intense international pressure to continue the search, possibly until the whole of the northern section of the Indian Ocean 7th arc is complete.

In all these debris discovery shenanigans, theories, counter theories etc. I still have a niggling doubt about the ATSB (at least at the executive level) true hand on heart commitment to the defined and then slightly re-defined search priority area... Dodgy

Maybe it is a prejudice that I carry witnessing the lies, deception and obfuscation by the Dolan led ATSB in the PelAir cover-up? Maybe it is the bizarre scenario that we all witnessed where AMSA, the SAR experts, were dumped in favour of the ATSB? - Still can't get my head around that, as the AMSA I once knew would have exhausted all possible avenues, outside theories, lines of inquiry etc. before abandoning the surface search.

Anyway the following is an example of why I have these lingering doubts.

To begin, reflecting on some of the historical articles and blogs on the debris drift theories, I happened to re-read the CSIRO blog - What does our ocean modeling tell us about the fate of flight MH370?

Graeme Harrison's reply posts very closely reflect my views on the shortcomings of the ATSB led research/actions/inactions to establish the MH370 SIO search priority area:
Quote:5 August 2015 - And further to my earlier comment, the CSIRO approach to the Reunion find of a flaperon is that this confirms our belief that the original ‘search area’ was correct.

But the contrary interpretation is that the flaperon proves that there was debris – ie the ‘whole plane’ did not land without breaking apart and thus sink as an intact-whole. But if we now accept that there was debris at the site of the crash, before it drifted away and slowly dispersed, SURELY the initial fly-overs would have spotted such floating debris? As no floating debris was spotted in the ‘SW of Perth’ corridor, the finding of any substantial piece of debris actually lessens the chance that this is the true location of the crash.

And yes, I am aware that there was a two-week delay before any search was conducted in this area, but I still suggest (in light of the flaperon find) that some debris should have been noticed in any area, before it could be described as the likely crash zone.

What should happen now is a computerised ‘pixel search’ for aluminium-reflection spectrum peaks in the Indian Ocean visual satellite data from the date of the crash till May (when the flaperon stopped on the Reunion beach). If one is to believe the capability of US and Russian satellite capabilities, there should be lots of ‘track strips’ of video as satellites passed overhead. As some point the sun glinting off such a piece of debris should have caused some glary pixels at the point of that debris at that time. Both US and Russian spy agencies should be asked to again focus their attention on any data they might be able to glean by re-examination of their satellite data as already collected. And the US needs to release clear data from Diego Garcia’s long-range radars on the night the plane disappeared, so that the plane’s other potential path along the North of the Indian Ocean can truly be ruled out.

Sightings by a US woman sailing a yacht from India to Thailand on the night, and observers in the Maldives recorded a low-level large jet flying along the Northern Indian Ocean trajectory. There were no human observations that supported the (less populated) Southern trajectory that the CSIRO favoured, due to ‘ping delay times’, which confirmed only that either a Northern or Southern route was likely.

[/url]5th August 2015 at 7:51 pm

I think the radar type you are hoping for is “submarine search radar” where satellites of major military powers might be probing for the reflection of any metal objects at water level or not too deep below that. Given the USA and Russian preference for tracking all of their opponent’s pieces on the chess board at all times, it does seem funny that there are not logs that could be examined to ‘reverse track’ the journey of that flaperon.

I don’t believe that “being heavy” would help debris deposited near the outer-reaches of a gyre to get to “the centre of the gyre” quickly. Wouldn’t the heavier object (once given velocity by the current) be the one to ‘spin outwards’ more than lighter objects, even though the centrifugal force is low, due to low rate of spin. In other words, greater mass provides greater angular momentum.

The bigger issue would be if any component was ‘well out of the water’ acting as a sail, in terms of separating that piece of debris from the rest of the debris. But the flaperon appears to have been almost submerged or close to surface level. But after the crash research team has analysed the part, it would be useful to then ‘float it’ in tropical-temperature seawater, to see if it assumes a single natural float position, or if there are more than one such position indicated by both float tests and barnacle growth. That might give some estimates of any ‘sail effect’.

I think it is time to get Boeing to ‘offer’ a few defective flaperons that never made quality control. Then next March, they should be set adrift in various locations, including at least one at the ‘SW of Perth’ search area, and another on approach to Diego Garcia from the East. Each one should be fitted with a tethered GPS tracker and radio beacon. Then let’s see where those near-identical items travel in the Indian Ocean, from March 2016 till May 2017, to imitate the journey the original one took from March 2014 to May 2015 when it reached Reunion. Yes, the gyre is a complex system, so one will never be exactly retracing a path, but that test will certainly exclude a whole bunch of alternative starting locations. And if you want to work out how a flaperon drifts with current and wind, there is no substitute for real near-identical flaperons! Because the drift path does depend upon the object shape and buoyancy, there is no substitute for using the identical shape and buoyancy. And yes, the tracking will take a year to run, but I suspect that this will be like finding the Titanic many decades after it went missing, but without the final latitude and longitude being already known!
 
Quote:[url=https://blog.csiro.au/what-does-our-ocean-modelling-tell-us-about-the-fate-of-flight-mh370/#comment-2812]7th August 2015 at 5:03 pm

David , yes, the flaperons should be set adrift from the various trial starting points mid-March 2016, to mimic the seasonal effects of MH370’s crash in mid-March 2014. And if Boeing can provide some ‘failed’ flaperons, for the trial an air-proof bladder may need to be installed at least in one end, to prevent sinking, as it may have been sheer fluke that the ‘found’ flaperon did not sink over its journey. And if no flaperons are available, then it would be easy to mock-up some using aluminium sheeting and again install a bladder of just sufficient size to ensure against sinking. Small GPS and sat-phone could be installed in plastic box mounted on top surface. Solar panel could be installed if needed, though device only needs to log GPS once per day.

And only if no flaperons are made available, and ‘mock-up’ flaperons are deemed ‘too hard’, then using near-netural-buoyancy buoys is still worthwhile, and cheap compared to mapping sea floor.

If it was up to me, I’d start one at SW extent of current search area arc; a second at NE extent of current search area arc; a third 100km East of Diego Garcia (to see if that general area can be ruled out by current drifts over 16 months to Reunion); and a fourth half-way between the search area and Diego Garcia (to complete the model). I think CSIRO should do that modelling for the Australian search team. Then see where these items end up after 16 months afloat.

Without doing this ‘real test’, we’ll still have politicians claiming that the Reunion debris supports current search area, despite no debris having been found in that region shortly after the crash. This approach is putting faith ahead of the facts.


Quote:Brock McEwen says


15th August 2015 at 5:39 am
Here is my best attempt to compare and contrast various drift models which have been used in the past year to assess MH370 surface debris probabilities – including CSIRO’s latest. I hope it helps generate robust discussion:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B-r3yua...sp=sharing
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  • Graeme Harrison says

    17th August 2015 at 4:14 pm

    Excellent work Brock. I think the most telling bits of text from your summary of models are:

    1. “The closer the start point is to Fugro’s latest search extension, the less feasible landfall on RI [Reunion Island] becomes”; and
    2. The statement that the ‘forward drift models’ from ATSB’s latest search zone for 14 months and the ‘reverse drift models’ from the ‘given’ of a landing at Reunion show “no co-mingling”.

    I think what will go down in history as complete hubris is that initial claim (after the flaperon find) by authorities that a large floating part of the plane washing up on Reunion Island “is entirely consistent with” the current search zone. And Nicholas Kachel’s comment “it appears our [CSIRO] original predictions may have been on the money” is a statement of belief, not facts. If we needed those, we’d turn to religion.

    As I posted earlier, if anything, the Reunion flaperon find ‘mildly disproves’ the search zone, as now that we know there was floating debris, including large reflective pieces, why was none found on any initial fly-overs (even given the two week delay)? The ATSB search zones have only had credibility while people thought it credible that the plane might have sunk ‘intact’. As I also posted, this new find should trigger a ‘re-search’ of satellite fly-over visual data and radar data, to see if any field of debris can be found, now that we know there was one.

    And on a bigger note, I think this drift modelling discussion for MH370 will change future search protocols for any future ‘missing planes’. It has been standard maritime practice for a century that if someone is lost overboard, you immediately throw something that floats to that same location (or as close as practicable). So why didn’t the first search planes drop GPS satellite broadcast buoys as the first ‘action’ over each new search area. If one had been dropped by an early surveillance plane over the NE and SW extremes of the search arc, the ‘actual’ drift pattern could have been observed/tracked. Instead we are left arguing over models of a complex system, when we could have had ‘reality’. If, at the May 2015 date that the flaperon was first observed on a Reunion beach, those buoys were only half-way from Australia to Reunion in the Northern part of the Indian Ocean gyre, then we’d know almost for certain that the plane crashed in a more anti-clockwise location on the gyre (than the current search area). This should be a sharp reminder to ATSB RAAF search experts, and advising experts at the CSIRO to ‘take on board’ (pun intended) what ship captains have known for a century (at least): Nothing beats a floating marker!

    Reply
    • 4th September 2015 at 3:54 pm

      And now (a month later) on 4 Sept 2015, we have the Sydney Morning Herald reprinting a report by The Telegraph, London that “A team at the Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research in Kiel ran extensive computer modelling of ocean currents to trace how the flaperon could have ended up on Reunion.”

      The German Kiel-based scientists who are experts in ocean drift are saying that the flaperon must have been ‘deposited’ about 3200km North of the current search area for it to have drifted to Reunion Island in the time taken.

      The SMH article is entitled “MH370 investigators ‘looking in wrong place'” and is at:
      http://www.smh.com.au/world/mh370-investigators-looking-in-wrong-place-20150903-gjesjl.html

      (though SMH articles are free to view for only some initial days after posting, thence paywall)

      The point of my earlier postings here a month ago were along the very same lines “MH370 investigators ‘looking in wrong place'”

      The article goes on to note: “Our results show that the current focus of the search south-west of Australia may be too far south,” said Jonathan Durgadoo, one of the researchers.

      The study found a number of possible locations for where the aircraft may have crashed. But only one corresponded to the arc of possible last positions from analysis of the plane’s satellite pings: an area of some 518 square kilometres off the south coast of Java.

      Separately, the barnacles found on the flaperon might indicate a more northerly crash site, but the Helmholtz Centre said its team had not been able to analyse the barnacles.

      While I am a huge enthusiast for what the CSIRO do in general, I again say that coming out and saying that the flaperon find confirmed the original search zone was sheer hubris. The biggest counter-argument is not the German ‘different’ drift modelling, but rather the lack of any debris originally found in the official search zone (now that we know debris did eventuate).


Understand that I have absolutely no idea what his background is or if he is qualified to comment, however as a former SAR pilot the logic and considered opinions within Graeme's posts I can very much relate...

Referring to the CSIRO report - The search for MH370 and ocean surface drift - in particular chapter 2.3 pg 4-8.

Now go to acknowledgements...

Quote:Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau. It drew on models and expertise developed mostly as part of the Bluelink project, a collaboration with the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) supported by the Royal Australian Navy and OceanCurrent, a component of the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS) supported by the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS). The work would not have been possible without several data sets; we thank 1) the space agencies NASA, CNES, ESA and ISRO and partner agencies NOAA and EuMetSat for satellite altimetry data, 2) the Global Drifter Programme of NOAA, which donated 10 SVP drifters to the project as well as providing access to the entire archive of past trajectories of Indian Ocean drifters, 3) ECMWF, NOAA and BoM for wind and wave data, and 4) Dr Mark Hemer of CSIRO for estimates of the Stokes Drift. We thank Madeleine Cahill (CSIRO), John Wilkin (Rutgers University), Chari Pattiaratchi (University of Western Australia) and Neil Gordon (DST Group) for their constructive comments on drafts of this report.
 
...where you'll see that nearly every Tom, Dick & Harry is mentioned - yet no Graeme (Harrison), Brock (McEwen); or Mike (Chillit)... Huh

Word of advice from the Aunty Pru sewer workers - get used to it fellahs... Wink

Much like PelAir, at the end of the day it is all being filed away by many for future reference and when the time comes to blow the lid off this one... Big Grin


MTF...P2 Tongue
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Captain's Log 07.01.17: Liow calls time on MH370

Courtesy the AFP via the Oz: 

Quote:MH370 search ends in two weeks
[Image: 5a5b63722536c8eafb0d09173dc1d85e]12:00am
The hunt for missing flight MH370 will end in two weeks, Malaysia’s transport minister said yesterday.

Quote:The hunt for missing flight MH370 will end in two weeks, Malaysia’s Transport Minister said yesterday, as ­relatives of passengers demanded authorities push on with the search.

“We’re at the final lap within these two weeks,” the minister, Liow Tiong Lai, said. “We hope we can find the plane.”

Mr Liow did not specify a date but said that a tripartite meeting would be held after a final report is released once the 120,000sqkm search ended.

Authorities had previously said the search would end early this year. The final search vessel ­embarked on its last sweep across the southern Indian Ocean in December.

The Malaysian Airlines jet disappeared en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014, carrying 239 passengers and crew.

It is believed the aircraft crashed into the Indian Ocean, but an ­extensive hunt in the ocean off ­Australia’s west coast has failed to find any debris that is unquestionably from MH370.

The Australian Transport Safety Bureau, which has been leading the search mission, said in a report last month that the Boeing jet is almost certainly not in the current search zone and might be further north.

The report was based on a ­review of evidence by Australian and international experts.
Australia has said it did not view the report findings as credible. The governments of Australia, Malaysia and China, where most of the passengers were from, previously agreed to pull the plug on the operation once the current search area was fully scoured unless “credible new information” emerged.

“We cannot just base (a search) on assumptions. We need credible clues to look for the plane,” said Mr Liow when asked about the possibility of a search further north.
AFP

Hmm...interesting timing not sure if played for but isn't that end date pretty close to the PEOTUS inauguration - Huh Tongue

The Liow 'end game' statement was met with mixed commentary on social media. Most met the news with disbelief, derision and condemnation. While others like MC welcome the news as a sign that now the real search can begin... Rolleyes

Quote:#MH370 Finally! Now let’s stop all the guessing and try to find it. https://twitter.com/ChannelNewsAsia/status/817472878425686016 …

Mike Chillit added,
Quote:Channel NewsAsia @ChannelNewsAsia

No suspicions of MH370 crew, passengers: French probe http://dlvr.it/N39p53
   
This has also prompted MC to put out a poll:
Quote:MH370 Opinion Polls January 6, 2017

by Mike Chillit

Should the search for MH370 continue?
  • Yes
  • No
Was Australia wise to search only 20% of the 7th Arc?
  • No
  • Yes
Who would you prefer conduct the next search for MH370?
  • an international group, made up of experts from many countries, and to include a Boeing rep only to respond to questions about the structure of the plane, when necessary to the investigation* 41%, 12 votes

    12 votes 41%
    12 votes - 41% of all votes
  • USA 31%, 9 votes

    9 votes 31%
    9 votes - 31% of all votes
  • Mike Chillit* 10%, 3 votes

    3 votes 10%
    3 votes - 10% of all votes
  • France* 10%, 3 votes

    3 votes 10%
    3 votes - 10% of all votes
  • China 3%, 1 vote

    1 vote 3%
    1 vote - 3% of all votes
  • Ask Robert Ballard and David Mearns for their suggestions. They may decline, but no one else has a clue.* 3%, 1 vote

    1 vote 3%
    1 vote - 3% of all votes
  • Australia 0%, 0 votes

    0 votes
    0 votes - 0% of all votes
  • Malaysia 0%, 0 votes

    0 votes
    0 votes - 0% of all votes
Total Votes: 29
January 6, 2017 

This entry was posted in 7th Arc by Mike Chillit. Bookmark the permalink.

MTF...P2 Cool


Ps In case you missed it 2 days ago Julie @nihonmama on twitter released the first two folders from the secret Malaysian police report into MH370.  Folder 1- Pilot & Folder 2 - Co-pilot
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Booze fuelled rhetoric; and:-

Never claimed to be a ‘world’s problems’ analyst. Hells bells; I have enough trouble understanding the political shenanigans microcosm of AU aviation. But, it seems to me both Russia and the USA have similar problems – homeless folk by the thousand; unemployed by the 100 thousand, debt, disease, drugs, violence and a myriad of ‘other’ problems. Both ‘major’ players; both vexed by terrorism, bedevilled by economy and driven by fear of breaking their rice bowls – such as they are.

MH 370 could, just maybe, be a watershed. MH 17 is a sore point; rightly or wrongly. Both Vlad and Trump ‘need’ some kind of bridge across the divide; gods know the parallels in the past history of both nations and the recent history of both nations preclude any sort of ‘he said – she said’.

370 must be found. It must be found by those who, by natural inclination, are averse to tearing this world apart. Those who have children which should be able to walk to school. Play in a local park, get home late and not do their homework. Raising a family, no matter what nationality, colour or creed, in a reasonably clean, fear free country should be a right; not a thing to be subjected to whim of those who would, for whatever reason, feel they and their crusade have the god given right to prevent this.

Vlad, Trump and the majority of the world leaders want at least peace – if harmony cannot be found. Ask Russia to help in the name of world peace; ask China to assist in the name of world peace; ask the USA to assist in the name of world peace. BUT FFS let’s stop buggering about – an aircraft is missing – let’s find it. All of us, for all the right reasons and never, ever, for whatever reason, let this happen again.

Correct – we ancients do rattle on a bit; but please – consider. The death of 239 people could be a gifted bridge -  between nations – for as long as it lasts. They, bridges, all burn; eventually, but just for a short while, could we not put aside all ‘politics’ and just make a humane, sustained, international effort to find this lost aircraft and the departed souls on board.  Imagine how, a world wide effort, made on purely humanitarian grounds could strengthen the bonds between nations. Or; on a more mundane level – what if your child, brother, sister, mother or father had been on board that aircraft.

The call sign was MH 370; there were 239 souls on board; they are missing.

Lest we forget why we are on this planet (provided it is not hell).

Selah.
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An ancient rattles on.

I was quite concerned when I read the title of the post above – the stable keg had taken a battering; you know how it goes.  The afternoon was spent ‘finishing’ a piece of furniture.  I can’t believe the amount of man hours poured into making a thing like that. The timber arrives in ‘a lump’ eight foot long, 2 foot square and rough as a Badger’s proverbial.  Then it waits, when dried enough it is cut, milled and then sized – eventually, with nothing more than hand planes and hand saws.  Then boards for panels etc. are made then jointed, these are first ‘squared’ using hand planes.  I counted 36 individual, hand cut frame joints made by surgically sharp chisels; over 100 dovetail joints each one carefully tailored. Every joint carefully measured then ‘made’ with no more than mallet, chisel and handsaw. I never knew it, but, in the ‘raw’ the whole thing needs a light sanding; to remove the pristine, shiny finish left by the tools – it actually needs to be roughed up a bit to accept a ‘finish’.  And so, the afternoon began; roughing up the work, no sharp things needed, just a wooden block and some Garnett paper – only natural that an ale should be poured during such a relaxed time. And so it was, ale was consumed as the hours passed, the ‘Shellac’ dried and the conversation wandered over a range of subjects.

I do try not to get too involved with the ‘push and shove’ of the 370 story; but, we occasionally chat about it, particularly Australia’s part. The Pel-Air debacle left the sour taste of suspicion behind it and when Dolan became ‘the man’ it was a difficult subject to avoid.

I have worked out why, for me at least, the whole MH 370 thing offends so deeply; it is a simple matter. Myself and ‘the lad’ hale from a long line of ‘drivers – airframe’ with deep roots in the past. I also know that had it been my command, then the search would never, not really, ever stop until my bones were parked ‘under the spreading Chestnut tree’ and proper fare thee well’s had been muttered. Were it one of mine who had that command, that day, I would spend such time as the gods granted me, searching for ‘mine’ so as to ensure they did, eventually, in spirit at least; come safely home.

World peace through a downed airliner? Blimey. That whimsy will create many a ‘booze fuelled’ debate; but, under laying, that which is the age old, time honoured, airmen’s tradition should be honoured.  “K” was not asking for world peace – but would be prepared to promote world peace as a valid reason to bring fellow airmen home; to bid them ‘God-speed’, in the proper manner. That being ‘we’ know what killed them and can take steps not to loose too many, that way, ever again.

Here I sit at my truly beautiful desk, surrounded by a life time collections of ‘technical’ manuals and such other wonderful books I have been able to hold; all parked on book shelves made by the same hand which ‘created’ this remarkable desk.  Were it my son, my friend; or, even my enemy, would I want the search to continue? 

What a bloody fool question that is; and, damn them as asks it.
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Update to - "..damn them as asks it..." Dodgy

(01-09-2017, 07:23 PM)P7_TOM Wrote:  Here I sit at my truly beautiful desk, surrounded by a life time collections of ‘technical’ manuals and such other wonderful books I have been able to hold; all parked on book shelves made by the same hand which ‘created’ this remarkable desk.  Were it my son, my friend; or, even my enemy, would I want the search to continue? 

What a bloody fool question that is; and, damn them as asks it.

Courtesy Creepy via Yahoo7 & the West Oz:
Quote:Halt MH370 hunt at your peril, ocean expert warns
Steve Creedy
Saturday, January 14, 2017 3:45AM
[Image: B88352855Z.1_20170113200852_000+G38REVTK...mwidth=800]US wreckage hunter Blaine Gibson with a piece of wreckage from MH370.

Governments expected to end the search for Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 next week face growing opposition from international experts worried the ministers involved are avoiding their responsibilities and putting the flying public at risk.

Malaysia, Australia and China have been the three key countries involved in the search since the plane went missing in 2014.

David Gallo, an oceanographic expert who co-led the teams that found Air France flight 447 and produced the first detailed maps of the wreck of the Titanic, yesterday warned the governments to look closely at the cost of not continuing the search.

“I have everyday people emailing, texting and tweeting asking can you please stand up and say we need to get this done,” he toldThe Weekend Westfrom the US.

“I think people don’t realise what the impact is.

“One is to the families and the loved ones. But the second part is the flying public. Not knowing what happened to this aircraft means that we’re all at risk of having the same thing happen to us or to our loved ones.”

[Image: B88352855Z.1_20170113200852_000+G38REVUP...mwidth=800]A piece of debris washes up on Saint-Andre de la Reunion, in the Indian Ocean.Picture:AFP

More than 10 million people board more than 95,000 flights a day. “When you look at that cost I think it becomes worth it to spend that kind of money and effort,” Mr Gallo said.

Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester, his Malaysian counterpart Liow Tiong Lai and China’s Yang Chuantang said last year that the search would end in the absence of credible new evidence leading to a specific location for the plane.

This is expected to happen — subject to weather — late next week when the Fugro Equator, the last ship still involved in the search, heads back to Fremantle. It is expected to return to Singapore.

Ending the search leaves unsolved the mystery of what happened to the Boeing 777, which disappeared in March 2014 while flying from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing with 239 passengers and crew aboard including six Australians and Perth resident Paul Weeks.

The Fugro Equator is using an autonomous underwater vehicle to run sonar scans in a new 25,000sqkm area identified by experts as the most likely site for aircraft debris.
The experts identified the site, to the north of the original 120,000sqkm site, after reviewing critical new ocean-drift data made possible by the discovery of wreckage from the plane.

[Image: B88352855Z.1_20170113200852_000+G38REVU9...mwidth=800]Blaine Gibson on Riake beach, Madagascar.

They recommended that the search continue until examination of all the remaining possible crash sites was exhausted.

The families of MH370 victims and Australian investigators also want to extend the search but the ministers said the information was not precise enough to warrant the extra $50 million cost.

Mr Gallo, a former director of special operations at the US-based Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and one of the first scientists to use robots and submarines to map the deep ocean floor, questioned how the governments could decide the information provided by the experts was not precise enough.

The search for the Air France Airbus A330 in deep water is the one most often compared with the MH370 operation because the black boxes were not found until a second expedition funded by French air safety investigator BEA, Airbus and Air France was mounted in 2011.

The US expert said the disruption of ending the search and demobilising the Fugro Equator would break up an experienced team and meant it would cost more to restart the search, something he considered inevitable.

“You break the ribbon, you lose all the pieces and the cost goes way up in attempting to bring it all back together,” he said.

Debris hunter Blaine Gibson, who has found more than 10 pieces of MH370 wreckage, toldThe Weekend Westyesterdaythat the Malaysians just wanted to move on. “I think the Malaysians right now just want to forget about it,” Mr Gibson said.

“They just want to put it behind.”


MTF...P2  Cool
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Muppets

"Australian Transport Minister Darren Chester, his Malaysian counterpart Liow Tiong Lai and China’s Yang Chuantang said last year that the search would end in the absence of credible new evidence leading to a specific location for the plane".

Says a lot really. The three muppets charged with making the decision to halt the search are exactly that - muppets. None of them would know their dick from their ass.
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Captain's Log 22.01.17: Private search & recovery methodology?

Via MC's 7th Arc:
Quote:Malaysia’s MH370 Private Search Incentive(s)
Posted on January 21, 2017 by Mike Chillit

Should Malaysia Provide Private Search Incentives?
  • Yes 100%, 9 votes

    9 votes 100%
    9 votes - 100% of all votes
  • No 0%, 0 votes

    0 votes
    0 votes - 0% of all votes
Should A Malaysia-Sponsored Search Incentive:
  • Cover all costs PLUS a bonus or reward 63%, 10 votes

    10 votes 63%
    10 votes - 63% of all votes
  • Include a paid private physical search of all Islands for debris 19%, 3 votes

    3 votes 19%
    3 votes - 19% of all votes
  • Cover all costs for finding the fuselage 19%, 3 votes

    3 votes 19%
    3 votes - 19% of all votes
  • Partial costs for finding the fuselage 0%, 0 votes

    0 votes
    0 votes - 0% of all votes
Total Votes: 16
Voters:11
Although the uptake of Chillit's latest opinion poll is certainly underwhelming, the premise of the poll does pose some interesting questions about firstly the veracity/sincerity of the Malaysian reward offer and how best to provide incentives for private entities to conduct a search and recovery mission for MH370.

This is what has been reported so far on the Malaysian reward incentive: Reference Reuters via ABC News - Malaysia to offer reward for private, successful attempts to find missing Flight MH370:
Quote:..Malaysian Deputy Transport Minister Abdul Aziz Kaprawi said the Government was open to credible private companies searching for it, and would reward any that found its fuselage.
Quote:"All costs must be borne by them. We will only reward them if they are successful," Mr Abdul Aziz said.

He said the size of the reward had not been decided. Any company intending to search should contact the government, and a decision would then be made on the reward, he said...

Quote:"We can't proceed until there is new evidence, but if there are credible companies that want to take on the search, then why not?" he said.
        
This is what fellow MH370 follower Pixie had to say about the above weasel words of Abdul Aziz:
Quote:..One of the most half-hearted & mean-spirited offers ever made.. which has been #Malaysia's attitude towards #MH370 throughout...
  
On the subject of the Malaysian reward offer, a quick review of social media and MH370 related blogs etc. the general consensus pretty well matches the view of Pixie. That is KL are just taking the Mickey Bliss, comfortable in the knowledge that there would be very few private firms willing to take on such a search without a guarantee of some sort of cost recovery on top of a significant reward incentive... Undecided

So if we put aside the Malaysian reward offer as neither realistic or genuine; is their another way to provide incentive for a private company or conglomerate to realistically continue with the search?

Now although the MH370 is technically a search & recovery operation, why would it not be possible to have a version of a Lloyds Open Form (LOF) contract drawn up? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lloyd's_Open_Form
Quote:A Lloyd's Open Form, formally Lloyd's Standard Form of Salvage Agreement, but more commonly referred to as LOF, is a standard legal document for a proposed marine salvage operation. The two-page contract is published by Lloyd's of London. It is called "open" because it is literally open, with no amount of money being stipulated for the salvage job: the sum to be paid is determined later in London by a professional arbitrator. At the top of page one, beneath the title "Salvage Agreement" is a statement of the contract's fundamental premise. "NO CURE – NO PAY". The form originated in the late 19th century and is the most common such form of international salvage agreement.[1]

The arbitrator, who is invariably a Queen's Counsel practising at the Admiralty Bar, follows the English law of civil salvage, in determining the salvage award. The value of the ship, its cargo and freight at risk are taken into account when the arbitrator decides what the award should be, together with the extent of the dangers and the difficulty in effecting the salvage.
Definitely not my area but perhaps if Lloyds or a similar insurance firm were willing to take it on, in the form of a LOF contract, maybe the additional cost recovery component could be made in exchange for proprietary rights to all other findings e.g other ship wrecks, shipping containers, fishing shoals or geoscience gas/oil/mineral discoveries - just saying.. Huh

MTF...P2 Cool
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